General Discussion AGY, page-16253

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Dwnon4

1,997 Posts.

427

07/08/23

06:20

Post #: 69190628
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Originally posted by GCar: ↑

"Why do we analyze stocks? So that we can achieve an excess return. So it can make a lot of sense to pay attention to whether a company is currently valued low in its own historical average(which is very difficult for growth companies). However, the value driver of a valuation change is only a one-time play. Namely, when we manage to buy a stock with a cheap valuation, and the valuation subsequently moves back towards its historical average.To be clear, this is not, no longer anymore, the case with AGY."

Oh dear!

The company is rapidly developing. Simple.
Our current earnings are "zero". Simple.
We are aiming to be producing >10tpa in about 4 years from now. Simple.
In the meantime, we are about to commence production from a 2ktpa plant.
It is entirely possible that in around 4 years from now, our EPS will be circa AUD$0.15
A P/E of 10 is perfectly reasonable, if not LOW, imo.
On a basic P/E-only measure, that would value us at say +$1.50 at that time, on those "current" earnings.
From today's 31c share price, that would be a CAGR of almost 50%
Sounds terrible.
...and, at that point in time, material progress should be made towards the next expansion, so the forward-looking market would then ALSO factor in some of that further value (some multiple of another circa $0.20 EPS i.e. some part of another $2). ...How much gets factored in - and when - depends on the market...so only time will tell. That is the attraction of the market - DYOR and try to be better at it than the masses.

Imo, if you are trying to put forward a case re AGY value, you need to do far more than generalise. Get specific. Do some scenario modelling and assessment. Detail matters.

Good luck.

p.s.

5-yr AVG 15.3x

5-yr AVG 13.9x

IMO
DYOR

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Morning GCar, I am pretty sure Smith is just using AI to generate his responses. His language is very broad.

AGY Price at posting: 31.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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