General Discussion AGY, page-17164

@Howard Ino

I suppose we'll have to disagree about the fears point. But with commissioning still well behind, still no customer, and it looks like the MRE will slide to Q1 2024, those are risks that are worth fearing. At current cash burn, AGY could be close to running out of cash by the end of Q1 2024. The upgraded feasibility study requires the MRE, and they wouldn't need an upgraded feasibility study if it wasn't needed to lock in a funding arrangement (at least that's my take). So I'm still unsure whether we'll have an offtake/funding arrangement in place before the end of the year.

If the 2 ktpa was humming and we were churning out lithium carbonate near nameplate, then there's no dramas as they could just sell on the spot market in the interim to stay afloat. But right now there's only $800k worth of product in the shed. That'll last about 4 days. The problem is commissioning has dragged out hugely, and if they can't get things up and running by Q1, there's a chance they'll need to do a cap raise. If not, AGY may just have to accept one of the less desirable funding partners to get it done before they bleed dry.

I'm not saying this is going to happen, as I still hold out hope that they'll get the plant sorted and at least produce at a rate that will break even. But we're not there yet, and with the company's history of underperformance and failing to meet targets, it's fair for investors to question whether JZ will get it done.

Of course you are entitled to your opinion, and if you are confident it will get done, then you are onto a winner. I remain unsure, so I'll rebuild my position once I'm sure that a cap raise won't be coming early next year.