General Discussion AGY, page-18293

So let me get this straight, you're suggesting that we should ignore the projected CAPEX estimate from Canaccord who just conducted a site visit, and also ignore the CAPEX spend of a peer in the same country, and just multiply a random figure by five and add inflation? That's ridiculous mate.

For a start, AGY haven't even finished spending on the 2 ktpa plant yet, with filtration equipment still being replaced as we speak. So you don't even know what the figure is to be multiplied, you're just picking $30m from the cap raise, but you're again conveniently forgetting about the options exercised in 2022 that contributed an additional ~$32m to the kitty. Where'd that cash go since you aren't accounting for it?

And $10m for the ponds? You've got to be joking. GLN just budgeted US$113.3m for 20 ktpa worth of ponds. Halve that to correspond with AGY's 10 ktpa operation, and you've got US$56.65m for 10 ktpa worth of ponds. Don't like peer comparisons? Take a look at AGY's own PEA from 2018, where they budgeted US$44.2m for the 10 ktpa ponds. If we adjust using your 30% inflation figure, that equates to a cost of US$57.46m, which is (give or take) equivalent to the cost of GLN's ponds. All good though, you were only off the mark by a factor of x 5.6!