Hey guys, i've updated the google sheets doc i had posted earlier today.
I looked through all the feasibility study documents posted by the lithium companies and added in a whole bunch of information.
These documents are SO important, as instos always make their calculations for fair value share price and market cap off of these documents.
It's important to note that AGY published a preliminary economic assessment in November 2018 giving us a NPV of $545m AUD (pre tax), or NPV of $409m AUD (post-tax).
Our current market cap is ~$212m AUD
I really wish Jerko would provide us with some form of updated NPV document for instos to see, i have a few things worth mentioning:
- Jerko used a discount rate of 10% when calculating it. 5/6 of the other lithium peers i checked used a discount rate of 8%. If we changed to 8% discount rate this could increase our NAV by around 20%.
-Jerko is assuming an operation of 10,000 t.p.a when we will now be doing 12,000 t.p.a
- We are using a resource size of 245,120 tonnes, we are aiming to have an updated JORC of 2-3 times this resource size due later this year.
- We will apparently have byproducts of 35,000 t.p.a of KCI (potash) and 25,000 t.p.a of magnesium hydroxide which by my rough google searches sell for around $220 USD, and $200 USD per tonne respectively. Adding these in could add an NPV of around $70m AUD (being generously discounted)
With all these things included i think we could change our post tax NPV to around ~$800m-$1,000m
As you can see from the table, a lot of lithium juniors are currently valued around 50-65% of their feasibility study NPV. If we provided an updated feasibility study i think we would make it to 40-50c off that alone before making it to $1+ once we are actually a producer and PE ratios kick in, instead of NPV stuff.
Click the link in the table, cheers -- for some reason i stayed up past midnight adding in more info lol. If you see anything incorrect give me a hoy and i'll change it, im sure there's a few things.
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