General Discussion AGY, page-19907

I used to think the resource expansion would be a significant milestone, but I'm no longer convinced by this. After witnessing several recent MRE releases (both maidens and upgrades), it appears that they've had little effect in the current negative climate. Even in a positive climate, brine expansions don't seem to have as much of an explosive effect as large spodumene drill intercepts (>100m).

For example, on 24 Oct 22 (at which point lithium sentiment was through the roof), GLN increased their resource at HMW by 158%, which is roughly what we can expect from the Rincon upgrade (on a percentage basis, not volume). The GLN share price rose 20% over the following two weeks (from $1.47 to $1.76), then dropped rapidly by 45% to 97 cents over then remaining six weeks of 2022. Remember, this fall occurred while Chinese spot prices were >$US80,000 per tonne, when conditions could not have been better for GLN to re-rate. Yet they almost halved in value within 2 months of the resource expansion, on no negative news.

I totally agree with you about the 10 ktpa permit though, as this seems to be the limiting factor preventing AGY from moving forward with the strategic funding/offtake, so effectively they are linked. Likewise with the commissioning/continuous production, I also agree that this should be a catalyst for a re-rate.

I'm not sure how you can say "do not blame the management team for any delay at all" though. The resource expansion is fully within management's control, and the delay resulting in the latest missed target (a late-2023 MRE release) is entirely on AGY management. If management aren't to blame, who is?