Great, thanks for your response.
From your response, I take it that you won’t be acting surprised or annoyed at any point in the foreseeable future, as you seem to have no (even remotely) firm expectations of timing for these milestones.
That’s good to hear.
You recognise that it could be months, could be a year, could be 2 years.
No “shock and awe” then next month, or the months after then?!?! Great.
“the long-term fair value for the 2 ktpa operation stands at around 30 cents (at nameplate)”
That’s interesting but I note that it is expected that the 2ktpa plant operating at nameplate won’t be without other critical milestones being hit - most critically imo the strategic partnership and funding solution for the expansion.
What does that mean? - imo it means that “the market” will factor in, to some extent, and increasingly, the value of the expansion when the 2ktpa plant is at nameplate.
Based on your “estimate”, it would appear that “the market” already factored in more than the 2ktpa plant for most of last year (2022). Fancy that.
What does that mean? - imo even if we use your 30c “fair value” for the 2ktpa plant running at nameplate, then at that point, 30c would still be undervalued, as there would be very significant additional works on the table: circa 5x expansion underway!
Let’s put a rough time on that for sake of example: say that still doesn’t happen for another 12 months.
That would provide a few more months for getting the plant dialled in and then +6 months to ramp up. Is that so “crazy” to imagine?
At the “fair value” you propose, that’s 100% annual growth from here. Factor in other company-making milestones and that, imo, could easily be 4/5/6/7 times that.
With appropriate risk weighting, in my books that’s a strong strong buy, and it matters not whether that timing is 9 months, 12 months or even 18 months.
Of course there are a bunch of pip traders aiming to scalp 5 or 10 grand here and there who lose their sh!te when months are added, but that’s their problem; and afaik most will be chasing their tails forever.
Some complain, others take the opportunity when presented.
Hopefully you can retire this year; keep us posted.
imo
Not advice
Dyor
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