General Discussion AGY, page-20961

That's not quite correct mate. I said I hoped to be surprised and hit a personal target of $1.70 by mid-2025, at which point I would sell. I added that I expected "around $2 by mid-2028.

It's very clear that it's not going to happen at this point, JZ has missed the boat for a competitive pre-paid offtake and it seems that massive dilution is required to fund the 10 ktpa CAPEX (probably around A$460m). That 10 ktpa CAPEX budget is equivalent to more than 4b (yes billion) additional shares, at which point all P/E ratios can be tossed out the window.

Now I don't actually expect 100% CAPEX funding through a cap raise, it seems pretty obvious that any funding solution will probably be a combination of pre-paid offtake, cap raise and debt. The problem is the timing. Any pre-paid offtake at this point is not going to be favourable to AGY, and it's not going to be a 100% solution. How many developers have received a pre-paid offtake that's worth 4 times their market cap?

Honestly, I think anyone who doesn't expect some significant dilution moving forward has got rocks in their head. And with that unknown hanging over the company, any previous estimates are worthless.