General Discussion AGY, page-21359

I'm keen to hear how you arrived at $5 mate. That's at least a $7b market cap, if not more through further dilution. In three years time, AGY won't even have the 10 ktpa expansion up and running.

The current spot price is around USD$14.5k/t, but let's be generous and work off a long term average sales price of US$25k per tonne. But then we need to factor in a discount for a long-term offtake. Again let's be conservative and roll with a 10% discount. As we know, nothing is perfect, so let's assume production at 90% of nameplate and keep things simple by assuming everything is battery grade.

2 ktpa Operation
US$25k x 0.9 (long-term contract discount) = US$22.5 gross revenue per tonne
US$22.5 - US$6.5 (minimum OPEX per tonne) = US$16k per tonne after OPEX
US$16k per tonne x 0.6 (~40% for taxes and royalties) = US$9.6k net profit per tonne
2000 tpa x 0.9 (90% nameplate) = 1800 tpa gross production
1800 tpa x 0.775 (AGY JV share) = 1395 tpa AGY share of production
1395 tpa x US$9.6k = US$13.392m or A$20.519m annual profit.
A$20.519m annual profit - ~A$1.5m annual costs for AGY admin/salaries/Tonopah = ~A$19m net profit per year
A$19m x 12 (assumed P/E ratio based on comparable peers) = $228m MC
$228m (MC) / 1.4b (SOI) = 16.28 cents share price

12 ktpa Operation
US$25k x 0.9 (long-term contract discount) = US$22.5 gross revenue per tonne
US$22.5 - US$6.5 (minimum OPEX per tonne) = US$16k per tonne
US$16k per tonne x 0.6 (~40% for taxes and royalties) = US$9.6k net profit per tonne
12000 tpa x 0.9 (90% nameplate) = 10800 tpa gross production
10800 tpa x 0.9 (AGY JV share) = 9720 tpa AGY share of production
9720 tpa x US$9.6k = US$93.312m or A$142.977m annual profit.
A$142.977m annual profit - ~A$1.5m annual costs for AGY admin/salaries/Tonopah = ~A$141.5m net profit per year
A$141.5m x 12 (assumed P/E ratio based on comparable peers) = $1.698b MC
$1.698b / 1.4b (SOI) = $1.21 share price

These numbers are IMO only, but I think some of my estimates err on the optimistic side. I don't actually think AGY will consistently produce at 90% nameplate, nor do I think they will achieve 100% battery grade. I also don't think they'll remain at 1.4b SOI, as I think we'll be diluted along the way (either to fix the 2 ktpa plant or to form part of the funding for the 10 ktpa expansion). Additionally, we need to factor in the payback period, whether that is debt or pre-paid offtake which amounts to foregone revenue. Importantly, the 10 ktpa expansion won't even be built by early 2027, so I really struggle to see how anyone could arrive at such an optimistic share price of $5 in three years time.

I'm happy for my numbers to be picked apart as necessary, we're all here to learn (I hope).