I'm keen to hear how you arrived at $5 mate. That's at least a $7b market cap, if not more through further dilution. In three years time, AGY won't even have the 10 ktpa expansion up and running.
The current spot price is around USD$14.5k/t, but let's be generous and work off a long term average sales price of US$25k per tonne. But then we need to factor in a discount for a long-term offtake. Again let's be conservative and roll with a 10% discount. As we know, nothing is perfect, so let's assume production at 90% of nameplate and keep things simple by assuming everything is battery grade.
2 ktpa Operation
US$25k x 0.9 (long-term contract discount) = US$22.5 gross revenue per tonne
US$22.5 - US$6.5 (minimum OPEX per tonne) = US$16k per tonne after OPEX
US$16k per tonne x 0.6 (~40% for taxes and royalties) = US$9.6k net profit per tonne
2000 tpa x 0.9 (90% nameplate) = 1800 tpa gross production
1800 tpa x 0.775 (AGY JV share) = 1395 tpa AGY share of production
1395 tpa x US$9.6k = US$13.392m or A$20.519m annual profit.
A$20.519m annual profit - ~A$1.5m annual costs for AGY admin/salaries/Tonopah = ~A$19m net profit per year
A$19m x 12 (assumed P/E ratio based on comparable peers) = $228m MC
$228m (MC) / 1.4b (SOI) = 16.28 cents share price
12 ktpa Operation
US$25k x 0.9 (long-term contract discount) = US$22.5 gross revenue per tonne
US$22.5 - US$6.5 (minimum OPEX per tonne) = US$16k per tonne
US$16k per tonne x 0.6 (~40% for taxes and royalties) = US$9.6k net profit per tonne
12000 tpa x 0.9 (90% nameplate) = 10800 tpa gross production
10800 tpa x 0.9 (AGY JV share) = 9720 tpa AGY share of production
9720 tpa x US$9.6k = US$93.312m or A$142.977m annual profit.
A$142.977m annual profit - ~A$1.5m annual costs for AGY admin/salaries/Tonopah = ~A$141.5m net profit per year
A$141.5m x 12 (assumed P/E ratio based on comparable peers) = $1.698b MC
$1.698b / 1.4b (SOI) = $1.21 share price
These numbers are IMO only, but I think some of my estimates err on the optimistic side. I don't actually think AGY will consistently produce at 90% nameplate, nor do I think they will achieve 100% battery grade. I also don't think they'll remain at 1.4b SOI, as I think we'll be diluted along the way (either to fix the 2 ktpa plant or to form part of the funding for the 10 ktpa expansion). Additionally, we need to factor in the payback period, whether that is debt or pre-paid offtake which amounts to foregone revenue. Importantly, the 10 ktpa expansion won't even be built by early 2027, so I really struggle to see how anyone could arrive at such an optimistic share price of $5 in three years time.
I'm happy for my numbers to be picked apart as necessary, we're all here to learn (I hope).
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- General Discussion AGY
I'm keen to hear how you arrived at $5 mate. That's at least a...
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 2,121 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add AGY (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
3.7¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $53.86M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
3.9¢ | 3.9¢ | 3.7¢ | $45.77K | 1.200M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
8 | 1412593 | 3.7¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
3.9¢ | 100000 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 1385566 | 0.037 |
9 | 2551157 | 0.036 |
26 | 3146579 | 0.035 |
11 | 1121154 | 0.034 |
11 | 1913451 | 0.033 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.039 | 100000 | 1 |
0.040 | 1938979 | 7 |
0.041 | 666530 | 4 |
0.042 | 242305 | 5 |
0.043 | 296146 | 3 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 09/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
AGY (ASX) Chart |