AGY (ASX) General Discussion AGY

Originally posted by Sdaji: ↑

You keep raving on about all this progress AGY has made.

I started watching AGY in 2020. I thought it looked promising because I (perhaps foolishly) assumed that when they said the pilot plant had done its job, it was true. The fact that they called it a 500TPA plant and it never came anywhere near producing at a rate of anything like 500TPA did concern me a little and should have been a big red flag that I recognised, but here we are. I knew they would have to have a CR to fund the commercial plant so I waited, and began accumulating at 13c after the trading halt, and continued buying as it fell from there. That was nearly four years ago.

What progress have we seen since then? No permit (okay, I won't hold it against them, although it was their choice to make the market expect it to come, and it hasn't), no offtake deal (which they said they already had), a commercial plant which can't produce at a rate of 10% of what the pilot plant was supposed to, and zero demonstrated progress at the pilot plant for over a year. They said commissioning would take four months, and we've seen zero demonstrated progress in over a year.

I was not concern about the lack of increase in production for quite some time. I wasn't concerned about reasonable delays beyond their guidance, but at some point you have to say that you're going to have to give me more than years of 'We expect the plant to continue to improve towards optimal production' type nonsense and actually demonstrate some progress before any sensible person will take you seriously.

The pilot plant didn't work. I never came close to producing at the rate it was supposed to. The 'commercial plant' doesn't work at anywhere near the rate the pilot plant was supposed to, let alone what it was supposed to. There has been literally zero hard demonstration
of any improvement in their ability to produce lithium since the dismal results of the pilot plant years ago.

You keep going on about all this amazing progress. They made a plant which didn't work then built a larger one which also doesn't work. Early in the commissioning stage (back in 2022) they made a small amount of product and we were excited, expecting things to continue to improve. There has been zero improvement since then. Literally none. The rate of production hasn't increased. Other than them saying they're optimistic about things improving (which they've constantly been saying all along with zero actual demonstrated improvement) nothing has developed in any way they can actually show.

How can you say for certain this a fantastic and rare opportunity? *If* they can suddenly make things work and get the permit to expand, then yeah, it's a multibagger from here, though at current lithium prices it still wouldn't get back to the price we saw early last year. If they do nothing more than continue to dish out hopium and fail to deliver any actual results, this is on a slow path to oblivion. The same can be said for countless speculative plays on the ASX.

You say there is a false "risk and delays" narrative being pushed here. If you can't see any risk you have had your eyes gouged out, and if you think delays is a false narrative there's no point trying to convince you of anything.

Expand

Cheers for a well written reply - there will be the usual comeback like "yeah but none of that was in their control, third party blah, blah, blah and whiners are failing to accumulate at these prices"

People should also factor in what will a right wing Government will do wrt nationalising certain aspects of the lithium industry in Argentina. Surrounding countries (Chile & Bolivia) have formed a lithium bloc in South America and are wanting Argentina to join - the uneducated folks believe the provinces control mines, well federal laws can rescind that if it is of national interest.

Argentina can pass laws stating that lithium is a "strategic resource":
https://www.mining.com/chamber-of-mines-of-argentinian-province-advocates-against-nationalization-of-lithium-resources/

With a new president who is a nutjob (took a chainsaw to a rally ) - who does believe in free markets, etc they still need to pay off their massive loans and given they aren't benefiting from the lithium boom in their own country it will be interesting to watch what happens ..........

No.	Vol.	Price($)
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Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.130	540566	10
0.135	763214	18
0.140	430642	11
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0.150	785952	20

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(20min delay)
Last 12.8¢		Change 0.003(2.00%)		Mkt cap ! $179.0M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
12.5¢	13.0¢	12.5¢	$35.89K	284.2K


Last 12.8¢		Change 0.003 ( 2.00 %)
Open	High	Low	Volume
12.5¢	12.8¢	12.5¢	199933
Last updated 11.06am 17/05/2024 ?

Cheers for a well written reply - there will be the usual...

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