AGY (ASX) General Discussion AGY

Originally posted by Sdaji: ↑

At the current rate of cash burn there will be insufficient funds to keep the lights beyond about the quarter after next. It is now near enough that we can pretty safely say that we are not going to see the plant suddenly start pumping out a large amount of product and for sales to be bringing in significant revenue before that time comes. Currently the total inventory of product, if sold successfully at current market prices, would provide enough funds to keep the lights on for a few extra weeks or so.

Companies are basically never stupid enough to wait until the last minute before cash runs out before going through with a CR as this results in severe harm and dilution and sometimes runs the risk of insolvency or defaulting on payments causing various types of significant harm if the CR doesn't go through smoothly. The later they leave it the more the market wakes up to the upcoming necessity causing a price drop in anticipation meaning the CR must be done at a lower price. Generally if a CR is going to be required the company tries to surprise the market with the trading halt to avoid a preemptive selloff (though the resulting selloff is unavoidable).

All this together means it's likely that the next piece of significant news we get from AGY is likely to be a CR trading halt. Given the current price of around 13c, the constant delays and disappointments and complete lack of revenue, the CR price would presumably be below 10c if they did it now and the price would then sink to significantly below that price. Go look at other CRs, this is typical for a 'keeping the lights on' CR, and even in a 'raising funds for an exciting new project' scenario CR the price would be sub 10c at a typical CR discount, especially given it is to produce a third plant after the first two have so far failed to get to even around 5% of nameplate even after years of delays - the more speculative the project the greater the discount.

At this point it is a very long way beyond the point where anyone could think there is any chance of funding a 10,000TPA plant from organic revenue, so raising external funds for an expansion is a guarantee. We are all but at the point where we can guarantee a 'keeping the lights' CR is inevitable, but even if you don't think it's certain, if you actually go through the numbers you'd have to admit it's at least a pretty safe bet, and I doubt you could find anyone who would argue when I say that the CR would definitely drop the share price.

Putting all this together it's puzzling to see what you would want to be holding at the moment. I dumped some of my shares last year but was waiting for an exit before the CR for a few months and was very pleased to get the price I did last month.

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Thanks for your reply.

I agree with your first two paragraphs. Makes sense.

Why do you assume that the next significant piece of news is likely to be a CR trading halt? Why would the signings of the EIA approval and offtake/strategic partner investment not occur sooner?

I agree that raising external funds for the 10ktpa expansion is a guarantee. However, you sound like you think those funds will be raised via a CR. Why do you assume this? Why could the expansion not be fully funded by the strategic partner, as was stated by the board at the previous AGM?

If they have to do a CR, they would surely wait until the EIA has been finalised (which does actually appear to be imminent) and the offtake/strategic partner agreement signed? These two ann's would be likely to significantly boost the share price, and one would prefer to raise into an elevated price?

No.	Vol.	Price($)
15	1071367	12.5¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

1071367

12.5¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
13.0¢	481044	6

Price($)

Vol.

No.

13.0¢

481044

No.	Vol.	Price($)
15	1071367	0.125
45	1659682	0.120
15	1192982	0.115
13	663528	0.110
9	734142	0.105

No.

Vol.

Price($)

1071367

0.125

1659682

0.120

1192982

0.115

663528

0.110

734142

0.105

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.130	481044	6
0.135	565593	16
0.140	490520	11
0.145	868808	13
0.150	685952	19

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.130

481044

0.135

565593

0.140

490520

0.145

868808

0.150

685952

(20min delay)
Last 12.5¢		Change -0.005(3.85%)		Mkt cap ! $175.5M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
13.0¢	13.0¢	12.5¢	$168.7K	1.324M


Last 12.5¢		Change -0.005 ( 1.57 %)
Open	High	Low	Volume
12.8¢	12.8¢	12.5¢	807462
Last updated 15.59pm 16/05/2024 ?

Thanks for your reply.I agree with your first two paragraphs....

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Thanks for your reply.I agree with your first two paragraphs....

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