AGY 0.00% 13.0¢ argosy minerals limited

I find it quite concerning that some are willing to claim a...

  1. 13,274 Posts.
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    I find it quite concerning that some are willing to claim a bunch of "facts" and make various bold assertions relating to the pilot plant, its intent, output etc.,when their research and analysis of the actual facts of the matter are clearly superficial.

    The facts are there for the taking for those who genuinely want to understand what occurred, and what didn't, and why.

    There was indeed intention to produce and sell more material than was actually produced, sure, but the astute investor will have known, or will seek out, the facts relating to changing circumstances, opportunities and plans.

    The following chart is one of various similar "Li pricing" charts for the relevant period. I have labelled various points on that chart that correspond with various activities and decisions related to the pilot plant.

    For now, I will focus on A, B and C. Might throw in a couple more. I'll address the others later.
    I've put them in this format because there is critical relevance to the unfolding pricing landscape.
    (note: the arrows aren't pointing to a specific price curve, they are simply indicating the time relating to each point (A, B etc), and it is important to note the unfolding pricing as each occurs)


    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6081/6081995-a25733d102b550fe8fa2e5198929b4ae.jpg

    .
    What do we see?

    A:
    March 2019; Sales agreement in place for up to 100 tonnes of Li2CO3.
    Great; they will buy up to 100t...!

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6082/6082024-11068052166c5836d6d286ae11355792.jpg


    B:
    July 2019; Plant production operations start:
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6082/6082052-2be0f9c44571aef63226c7354af7c3ae.jpg

    Great; starting to produce beyond small batch testing and tweaking.
    Note: pricing is dropping; circa $10k/t

    C:
    Oct 2019; BG is being produced, but plans are changing due to market dynamics:
    Note: pricing is continuing to drop; under $10k/t
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6082/6082067-cf97cc4a9cb38636644c1abf301ac584.jpg
    "The current focus is to ensure cashpreservation"
    "prioritising....tailoring of product specification in conjunction with end users"

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6082/6082096-ff0f500f3d12b5ee7885d62b554a0bb2.jpg

    "....For these reasons ..... product output at a targeted rate of up to to 50tpa"

    "...noting limitedmargins"

    "....working capitalpreservation"

    "....dependent on marketconditions"

    "....has delivered on its original goal"


    D:
    Dec 2019; 5-tonne shipment planned for Q1 2020.
    Note: pricing is continuing to drop; circa $8k/t

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6082/6082149-c2a698f44265ed6668e9577f411836ce.jpg

    ...and then, of course, the covid drama and restrictions raised their ugly head....

    E:
    April 2020; 5-tonne shipment delayed; samples sent prior; operations suspended
    Note: pricing is continuing to drop; under $7k/t

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6082/6082159-df7e147b82b570334137d65350bfcafd.jpg
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6082/6082161-8355c6bfc9470b0549196df7280361de.jpg

    Company outlines financial position:

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6082/6082165-a42ab7c9fd33e3ccac5dcc42ea0c8488.jpg
    "....will consider further cash preservation measures as required"


    F/G/H/I/J/K/L/M coming later...


    Some here want others to believe that the company simply couldn't get the pilot plant to work, they abandoned it, etc etc.... when iirc they weren't even around to follow this journey, and they clearly haven't done the research to properly understand what actually happened, and why.
    Was it easy? No!
    Was the pilot plant relatively manual and resource-intensive? Yes!
    Was it "cheap" to produce each tonne? No!
    Do we all wish it was easier and cheaper to run, and could knock out BG product at a faster rate etc? Of course!
    Did it answer everything required for risk-free subsequent scaling? Of course not!
    Did it deliver on its primarygoal? YES, as per previous posts and presented facts.

    DYOR everyone!!!
    The above statements from the company can all be found in the corresponding announcements from the date/month noted, along with much additional relevant info for those genuinely seeking to understand the progress and prospects of this company.


    Ps. here is another pricing chart (CIF Asia), for reference to the above points (same trend for relevant period but overall time extends further):

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6082/6082196-a789652d662b7c77fc7bac53437e956a.jpg

    ...and yes, the pricing headed north around Q2 2021, when we were getting stuck into the construction of the 2ktpa plant (funded in Feb 2021).
    Some might argue that they should have then gone back to produce from the pilot plant, at these higher prices.... Well, for the guys living and breathing this stuff on a daily basis - Puna Mining - that clearly wasn't seen as a suitable or practical option that was in the best interests of the business at that time.
    If you want the specific details, ask them directly instead of relying on a bunch of "logical" assumptions and assertions that don't even incorporate or consider the facts that are actually available publicly.

    Circumstances, opportunities and plans change.
    Imo it pays to DYOR and understand them.


    IMO
    DYOR!
 
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