You can't just report good news if there's nothing good to...

You can't just report good news if there's nothing good to report.

A month ago AGY released an update which was colourfully worded but didn't actually paint *that* great a picture if you just looked at the raw facts.

As usual, the next announcement will substantiate the implications or reveal they were without substance. This is the problem with dangling the carrot - it works beautifully in the moment but brings pain later. There was the bizarre implication that fixing the cooling system was some sort of progress, and the strange notion that routine maintenance on filter cloths which had already shown they hadn't changed much was going to radically improve production.

You may be able to confuse people with colourful wording and make them think production is going to increase because of such things, but then a month later you either need to report that it's still situation normal, or you need to stay silent and let the market work that out for themselves. This is the sort of game AGY keeps playing. The price is dropping because the market isn't entirely stupid, but the fan boys here seem to still believe based on the last update that behind the scenes the situation is booming and they're just not bothering to report it. We've literally spent years now with people chanting "Give us an update, JZ! We really need it!" and then the next update is disappointing and/or gives false expectations about imminent progress setting up disappointment for the next one.

If production was booming, there would have been an announcement this morning - they know the share price is dropping and they would obviously prevent/reverse that if they could, which news of increasing productions surely would. Tomorrow will be a month from the last update. If there isn't an announcement on Monday the market will likely push this below the 8.6c 12 month low which will bring a new multi year low (incidentally, less than half the price I sold out for - if I wanted to I could double my holdings with change still in my pocket).

If there *is* an announcement on Monday, it's probably not going to be a good one (they'd have released it today to prevent further bloodshed), but I am sure it will be loaded with optimistic wording and implications, just like email responses from JZ will be and always have been. Right up to shortly before the last CR, JZ was happy to tell me he didn't expect a CR would be needed and there wasn't one being planned. JZ's job is to put out announcements and email responses which make people optimistic and confident and want to buy/hold. It's not his job to bluntly give a straight message of 'Yeah, production outlook is looking bleak, the share price is definitely going to drop in the short term and likely the medium term before we actually get this show on the road, I obviously can't sell because of the optics but as a private investor you should sell now and wait until production gets going some time after the next CR to buy back, which could easily be well into next year" - JZ absolutely knew earlier this year that it wasn't a good time to be holding, but has always given very positive and optimistic email responses. Literally everyone from every ASX-listed company who will give you an email response will make it extremely positive - this is not any sort of evidence that it's a good time to be buying/holding.

I'm looking forward to the announcement next week. I assume they'll put one out even if it's bad news, because the market will freak out about assumed bad news if there's radio silence all week. If there is no announcement it'll be an interesting show to watch and people can get even more angry at me (and Rob and others), if it's bad news it'll be similar, and in the unlikely but best case scenario of good news, I can buy in, enjoy the train ride, and people can make bizarre accusations of me being two-faced or hypocritical etc.