I've said it before, I'll say it again for you if you missed it.
At the time of record lithium pricing, you could have closed your eyes and invested in almost any lithium stock and made money. The world was HYPED up on lithium, every news channel you turned on was talking about lithium, EV's, Tesla. The media frenzy around it, if you don't remember, was crazy. It was a massive bubble and a lot of people got caught. Everything EV was over exaggerated. The hype has come and gone, which is why you saw absurd carbonate prices of 600,000CNY and which is why it's now dropped over ~85% from the peak.
You guys are taking an unrealistically sustainable situation (inflated share prices), and using it as some sort of metric, as if it's achievable again by doing nothing now -- because we had less back then. It doesn't work like that.
When AGY was at it's peak, or rather, on it's sharp rise upwards in 2021/2022, you can see plain as day that it coincides with the EV/lithium craze the world was in. The lithium price started it's decline when AGY was around 72c, but the constant narrative by the company that offtakes were expected around the corner (in final advanced discussion and using baiting terms like "offtake currently quarantined for strategic process") as well as false expectation of "fast tracked" commercial scale production, kept the traders around to push it to 80c before the sell off. The play-by-play is literally there for all to see, for whoever cares to look.
Do I believe a rising lithium price will bode well for the company? Of course. Does it automatically mean it will push AGY to 50c "just because". If people learnt their lesson the first time, then absolutely not.
I also believe that when it came to the pointy end (ie. actually having to deliver on what they say), people have become more aware to the 'carrot dangling' being used, and in fact are more realistic about what they're being told, over the over-hyped, ridiculously optimistic phantasies the company had tried to sell us on.
If the company cannot continue increasing it's performance, production and delivering, this will hinder the share price whether or not the spot price recovers. Which is why I've been banging on about the production quantity updates, to see some form of progression.
Long post for a Wednesday night... IMO, GLTA
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