A lot of the time, investing is about working things out for...

A lot of the time, investing is about working things out for yourself. If the market has already been spoonfed the exact figures and given an exact valuation, the market price will reflect that and you can't really make money. If you can work out what's going on before the market knows, you can make money or avoid losing money. There is a lot of value in anticipating what's going on before it is announced.

You're asking a lot of questions here, because you don't know the answers, but it's quite easy to know the answers already.

Your questions answered:

JZ, any news?
Yes, but none that he wants to provide. If the news was good, he already would have. He hasn't, indicating it's not good.

have the final works been completed?
The plant is completed, but they're trying to get it working. No, in that sense it's not completed.

how's production coming along?
About the same as before. No big developments (hence the lack of company announcement)

what's the daily rate?
About the same as before (hence no announcement).

will we reach the nameplate?
Unknown at this stage, but the official answer is yes, it's a matter of when not if. Realistically, they likely will get there but it's likely a matter of years not months.

if not, what range are we aiming for?
The aim is obviously nameplate, and even if the directors knew for sure that it would never happen, they wouldn't tell the market, but it's safe to assume they are genuinely aiming for nameplate.

what's it costing to produce?
Currently, all things considered, the cost of production is far beyond what the product is worth. At the current time it's more relevant to look at total company cash burn. Cash will be exhausted by some time early next year if things continue without change.

are we in the money?
Hahahaha. Sorry, I shouldn't laugh, but it's difficult not to. No. Obviously not. You don't delay making announcements when you know that is going to scare the market and kill the share price if you have tremendous good news which would prevent that. You only passively allow the share price to crash if the alternative of putting out the news would be even worse (or if you're playing illegal games, but that doesn't seem to be the case with AGY).

Let's be honest, let's be realistic. They wouldn't have sat on good news, keeping it secret, while allowing the financial year to finish with tax loss dumping pushing the SP to a multi year low.


It's quite remarkable that questions like these are on the minds of so many people, even though the answers are completely obvious, and it gives an insight into how the market works. No matter how obvious things get, the market has a tendency to believe what it wants to be true until it is forced to see otherwise.

I was expecting an announcement this week, but they've seen fit to maintain radio silence for the first week of the financial year. The next update certainly will be interesting.

Have a good weekend, everyone!

Oh, and laterider, I did write to JZ this week (it has been a while since I did). More out of curiosity to see how he'll respond than expecting meaningful answers (his last answers contradicted what happened imminently after, etc).