You say ATL has "looked under the hood" as though it has access to more information than we do. I would honestly be very surprised if the staff at ATL responsible for the decision had looked in more detail than you or I have. You know as well as I do how office staff/bean counters think and operate. I've seen people in the office make absurd mistakes costing far more than 5 million dollars to companies a fraction of the size of ATL, which could have been avoided by employing a high school student to put a few days of time into looking at. Anyone who has had anything to do with the corporate world has seen this. Anyone who has friends who work in that environment has heard them rant about these experiences over a glass of wine on a Friday night.
The people saying they want AGY to throw a few million dollars at a PhD scholar or similar (few as they are) seem to be dedicated but desperate holders who ultimately believe in the company but are frustrated. Obviously it's a silly notion. It's not really a 'narrative' as you put it though, it's just an idea a very small number of holders have. A narrative is more a story about actual things happening, the reality (or imagined reality) of a situation, like, say, ATL having illegal access to more information than we do and companies being extremely reliable at analysing other companies unrelated to their own by employing bean-counting office drones. That's a stupid narrative, as opposed to a proposal/idea.
What "tough questions" do you think ATL asked Puna? Come on, think of any example of these "tough questions" they've asked. If you want to make an assertion like that, come on, let's hear it, name some "tough questions" ATL would have asked Puna. Honestly, what a stupid thing to say. You're implying that they have either asked questions you and I couldn't have thought of, or they've illegally been giving information we are not privy to. Which is it? Is AGY run by criminals or are you stupid? By your own reasoning at least one of the two must be true!
The ATL deal is a positive in a sense, but only in that it was less harmful than we expected. It's nothing like the BS narrative you're pushing, it's a positive in some ways, sure, but the main positive is that they were stupid enough to buy AGY shares at around 14c per share shortly before they could have bought on market at half that price - these are the amazing geniuses you're putting on a pedestal. Sure, it's great that the dilution to shareholders was not as nasty as it could have been, but it's just a case of the damage to shareholder value in order to keep feeding the cash burn fire being less than it otherwise might have been, not actually a "good" thing.
The really juicy thing you say here is that you think that maybe, in your bull scenario, maybe, AGY can be "self-sustaining" in 6-12 months. We've all seen how often AGY has come anywhere remotely near your bull case scenarios (literally never ever anywhere near), but even in your bull scenario we are guaranteed to see AGY require another CR in the next six months. They're going to have to do that with a recent case of ATL having been burned, AGY having blatantly carrot dangled (unless they actually have production roaring along, in which case I'll be holding again, happy days, but why hold now?).
You talk about posters avoiding things like the plague. Again, I ask you, what do you think the next progress update will look like? Positive or negative?
You say people avoid risk:reward analysis. Long term it's very risky (I'm not among the people expecting to see AGY go into administration etc), but sure, there's a chance of success. Short to medium term, your lack of being willing to comment on the next update shows that even you think it will be bad, a CR is all but definitely going to be required in the next six months or so (could happen at any time), and whether or not it's because of Chinese manipulation (the CCP is deeply evil etc, but that doesn't mean they don't exist!) the lithium price doesn't look like recovering in the short or ever medium term. So, even if maybe AGY *might* look okay down the track, why would you want to be holding over the next few months? The risk:reward ratio looks horrible for the rest of this year.
It's comical that you of all people complain about others spinning invalid narratives.
AGY Price at posting:
8.8¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)