Lie as much as you like, obfuscate by linking to a giant post, but here are some facts:
Fact: AGY stated that the 500TPA pilot plant would be used to generate revenue to fund the 10,000TPA expansion.
Fact: The 500TPA plant was abandoned despite lithium prices going higher than anticipated and higher than when the plan to use it to generate revenue was made.
To put the current lithium price into perspective, the current lithium price which everyone is saying is incredibly low, is still higher than it was when AGY announced the CR which was to fund the 10,000TPA plant, and significantly higher than it was at the time 'Wuhan coronavirus' was first mentioned in the news in late 2019 or when the term 'COVID-19' was coined or when there was any economic impact from it. They kept the... ahem "successful" pilot plant mothballed right through the entire years of high prices, right through to now, which by the standards of a few years ago are still high! If the plan was to use the 500TPA plant to generate revenue and it did work, why isn't it still in operation now? The "low lithium prices" story does not reconcile with actual lithium prices. The same company and people which sold you this story are still the ones running AGY right now.
Fact: The 500TPA never made it above about 5% of nameplate production rate.
Fact: The company then claimed the 500TPA plant had done what it was supposed to do, and many people still active in this discussion believed and spread this story.
Fact: The 10,000TPA plant was built and commissioning started more or less according to the anticipated schedule (no serious delays), but production rate stalled right at the same level the 500TPA plant never exceeded, and 'commissioning' dragged out for a huge period at that same level.
Fact: After exhaustive efforts to improve the production rate proved ineffective, external consultants were hired. They suggested new filter cloths be trialled.
Fact: Enough time has now passed for the results of the new filter cloths to be seen. They produced only a marginal improvement in production rate, and the same type of filter cloth is still being used now (unless there have been changes the market has not been informed of, which IMO is extremely unlikely).
Fact: (though feel free not to believe me and take it merely as my own opinion or claim or interpretation or whatever you like, it's not something you can verify, but by all means contact JZ yourself with any questions you like and see what answer you get) JZ usually states in private communications with investors that there is optimism and that something or another is being trialled or tested or tweaked (noting that even then usually nothing comes of it). In my last correspondence with JZ, he basically expressed frustration with the current situation and vague hopes that something will work out at some stage by the time the lithium price finds a new rally in the cycle. He may expect this sooner than I do, but I don't think any of us expects it to happen in the next six months. Absolutely, this specific point is mostly my own opinion and interpretation based on something you can't verify, take it as whatever you like or ignore it entirely.
Fact: No specific new fix has been proposed to improve production rate since the filtration issue was cited.
A general 'we'll keep working on it' message has been given, but other than the filtration system, which was clearly encountered years ago in the 500TPA plant, specific bottlenecks haven't even been listed, or fixes proposed, let alone achieved.
Fact: I think there's a high chance that gcar will nit pick some little detail from the above in order to try distract people from and obfuscate the big, clear, factual overall message and picture.
AGY Price at posting:
8.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
