Nah, how about we look at March 2024, when AGY was kicked out of the ASX300 during the re-balance. The shorts steadily dropped by ~35% (from 4.38 to 2.98%), with ~22.5m shorts closed over the period from 04-15 Mar 24, the two weeks immediately prior to the rebalance:
With the pressure on the shorts to close their positions in order to hand back the loaned shares to the institutional holders that lent them, who themselves were exiting their long positions due to the rebalance, a mini-short squeeze was on:
The shorts closing caused a 65% rise in the AGY share price over the two weeks leading up to the rebalance, and some smart people used this opportunity to exit at a much, much higher price than what could be achieved later, with the AGY share price giving back almost all of those gains by the end of that calendar month (March). This was an event where having shorts on the register was clearly beneficial to AGY shareholders, or at least to those who didn't have their head in the sand, and were willing to act on this event.
But you weren't, because you failed to acknowledge this action for what it was, so you didn't use the shorts to your advantage. On the day of the SP peaking, you had the right idea, but mentioned that "there was no clear pattern of boom or bust the day or day after after the rebalance":
I hope you learned something from that, because the AGY SP dropped like a rock immediately after that rebalance. Hopefully that pattern is now clear enough for you. TBH though, I don't blame you for getting carried away at that time. When the SP starts rising, your exuberance gets the better of you and all common-sense goes out the window. My particular favourite from this time was when you were playing out your whole Shazza/Gazza/Razza routine:
It's a real shame that things didn't work out so well for poor old Shazza. Those 400k shares she ended up with by averaging down are now worth just $20k, despite her total outlay of $60k, while thinking she was an absolute genius.
So much for "winning"
