Is it less realistic to think you'll only be diluted 50% or that...

Is it less realistic to think you'll only be diluted 50% or that you'll be making 500% after only being diluted 50%?

If they were to dilute you 50%, at an amazing 0% discount, crunch the numbers of what teensy tiny irrelevant percentage of an expansion they could build.

You'll very likely be diluted 50% and lose more than 80% of the share price value (making a 500% return from there still leave you on a loss from here which is already a big loss from when you bought in) before the lithium price significantly recovers.

You can pluck magical figures like a 50% dilution followed by a 500% gain out of the air if you want to but that doesn't make it any more likely to happen than the bullish predictions people here were throwing around fairly recently when the share price was 500% higher than it is now.

When the lithium price does eventually recover, AGY doesn't magically get funding for the plant, and it's still extremely unlikely anyone will want to put that money up. The share price probably will increase a little from however low it gets between now and then, but most of the lithium bulls will be looking at either new startups or more promising companies rather than something like AGY with a long consistent record of failure and a history of company guidance which could very generosly be called questionable.