So, my mate Barry phoned me up again... I had been ignoring him lately as he talks a lot but doesn't really have much substance...
He brought up that I had pointed out his call that not much would happen from last July for 6 months, because according to him there would not be any unexpected news flow and the market had priced in what it expects already... a boring period ahead as we plod along constructing our plant, or something like that...
So now he says that he was indeed basically correct, because not much happened for months.
So I sent him this chart and pointed out a few facts:
At the end of June 2021, the sp was 9.9c
By end of July, sp was 12.0c; UP
21%By the end of Aug, sp was 17.5; UP
77%End of Sep, 20.5c; UP
107%End of Oct, 29.0c; UP
193%End of Nov, 27.5c; UP
178%End Dec, 32.0c; UP
232%I said Bazza, I said mate, I said Bazza... How is that "not much happened for months" and "therefore I was basically right"..???
Up 21% in July.. Up 77% in 2 months... Over double by 3 months... almost tripled within 4 months...
"Stop being so aggressive" he said. "Why are you so angry" he said...!!??
LOL, no-ones angry Baz, I said... just pointing out that your understanding of the influencing factors driving the sp are fundamentally flawed. Fundamentally flawed. I have no issue with people having a guess and being off; we all do it. But, Bazza, I said, what you illustrated there was a solid and significant misunderstanding of the issues that drive pricing. "Was there a heap of company-specific bad news through 2018/2019/2020 that drove the sp down?", I asked him.
"No, of course there wasn't, Barry, in fact quite the opposite; we got our pilot plant running, produced BG carbonate with a scalable process, produced and shipped many tonnes of product for qualification testing etc etc... There were other things and broader issues driving market sentiment and pricing in this time, so just as it didn't require "bad unexpected news" from the company to drop us from +40c to under 5c, it didn't require "good unexpected news" from the company to drive the pricing that I just highlighted in H2 2021. But you clearly failed to comprehend this critical and fundamental concept, Bazza. That's a BIG error buddy."
"What a Psycho", Bazza replied... "Why are you so angry?" he chirped again.
"Righto Bazza, you do you buddy, but don't forget that the truth always comes out, and chicken little gets left stranded eventually. You can't fight the facts, and making nonsense claims and baseless insults just makes you look foolish, when people can see the history for themselves"
I can't believe Barry missed the basic and key concepts of market sentiment and shifting tides, and failed to learn from the very clear information that was right before his eyes. Oh well, maybe he'll start learning and get better... Or maybe he did know, but was just trying to paint a picture for others that suited his trading position (or lack of) at that time...? Guess we'll never know for sure, but either way it's pretty sloppy imo.
Don't be like my mate Bazza. Hopefully he'll get better and give up on the nonsense knee-jerk overreacting defensiveness and baseless insults as he trades his pips on his way to riches....
....Meanwhile, we tick along with plant construction and should be commissioning in a few months' time! ...all among a landscape of improving sentiment and product pricing, and "worsening" supply shortfalls... NICE!!
GLTALTH
