General Discussion AGY, page-5503

G’day ghostbuster,

As DLevel suggested, I also think your sales pricing is too high and your cost figure a bit low.
Afaik we aim to contract our output - hopefully to the S Koreans imo - and I don’t know of any contract prices that are even close to the figure you have used.
It seems you have plugged in a spot price figure, but imo that’s not really applicable in our case. Imo our contract/s might end up being for somewhere closer to half of that number.
In any case, the 12ktpa operation is where we will really start to shine, and this 2ktpa stepping stone was merely to maintain momentum and tick off some more de-risking in our quest for +10ktpa, afaict.
Thanks for sharing your calcs.
My “back of the envelope” reckons we could be seeing earnings of USD200M-300M once we expand to circa 12ktpa. Eg somewhere around $20k-30k margin per tonne.
Once we factor some further equity issued and convert to AUD, this might justify a SP closer to $2, imo.
If we get some good continuity from the 2ktpa to the 12ktpa, we might even be commissioning the larger plant in late 2024.
I’d be very happy with $2 around that time.
...and of course there may be further upside from Tonopah or elsewhere along the way.
A lot can happen in a sector that is growing at such a fast pace.
Imo
Cheers and GL