AGY 0.00% 8.8¢ argosy minerals limited

Predicting dividends is like reading tea leaves and is more for...

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    Predicting dividends is like reading tea leaves and is more for entertainment value than anything practical, but we can play the game and have a wild stab at guessing based on realistic estimates.

    Assuming we are ultimately heading for production of 25,000TPA, we won't be seeing any dividends until we are debt free and all facilities/planned expansion are fully funded, this could be as early as part way through building the last plant, or some time after it is finished and in production. Absolute earliest would be in late 2025, but probably later, probably around 2027, and even then, assuming all goes fairly smoothly, and assuming nothing happens at Tonopah.

    If we are at 25,000TPA production in, say, 2028 and not looking at expanding (whether it's Tonopah or Rincon or a newly-acquired tenement, we may still be growing and like not looking at dividends), you can plug your expected lithium price in and get an estimate for dividends at that time given all your assumptions, which are not likely to be correct this many years in advance.

    Plugging in fairly realistic lithium prices (let's say we're selling for around half current spot prices), we'd have around $1 per share in gross revenue. Subtract costs, account for dilution, you could be looking at anything from 5c to something over the current share price depending on several unpredictable variables.

    But just as likely, they'll spend money on expansion for years after 2028 rather than paying dividends. And, of course, trying to predict lithium prices 5+ years in advance is not going to be particularly accurate. There's perhaps the possibility that Rincon won't go beyond 12,000TPA (some may even argue we won't get beyond 2,000), though that would actually mean we'd get dividends sooner, but they'd be smaller.

    Short version: it's not possible to predict anything useful about future dividends at this time.
 
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