Recently i've established the importance of lithium company valuation based off project NPV (Net Present Value) based predominantly on these five factors, including:
- X resource in the mine
- X amount mined per year
- $ Cost per tonne to produce
- life of mine
-CAPEX (how much it will cost to build)
We know AGYs Rincon Project was given a pre-tax NPV of $399m US / $551m AUD.
We also know Jerko will be doing an updated NPV based off a feasibility study due to be conducted at the end of the year which will give us updated figures based on 12,000 t.p.a production instead of 10,000, an updated JORC with 2-3x resource (aiming for), and hopefully he uses a discount rate of 8% like everybody else this time, instead of 10%
I think we will end up with double the NPV for this project once its updated (and therefore good reasons for institutional investors to double our share price).
Now, lets move to some research to AGY's Tonopah Project located in Nevada.
Jerko specifically bought these tenements in Nevada because they are neighbouring to Albemarle's Silver Peak project which is one of the oldest and most successful operating lithium projects to date.
I have looked everywhere for information on the mine resource of the Silver Peak Project, including how many tonnes they're producing annually from it, and at what cost but cannot find it.
Instead i have found information on the Cypress Clayton Valley Lithium Project which is just on the right side of the Silver Peak Mine (we are on the left side, see below)
Some recent information from a feasibility study done by Cypress:
- Aiming for 27,400 lithium carbonate equivelant production per year
- 1,280,000 litihum carbonate equivelant resource size (with 900 ppm lithium or above)
or
- 6,280,000 lithium carbonate equivelant resource size (with 400 ppm lithium or above)
- CAPEX $493m
- NPV @ 13,000 lithium carbonate price (keeping equivelant to what we used) = $1,880m NPV
This doesn't mean we will definitely get an NPV of $1,880m out of our Tonopah project, but by looking at neighbouring projects in the area, we can start to get an idea of what could be...
adding an NPV of $1,880m to our portfolio would add around $1.40 to our share price.
Cheers, Jezza
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