For what it is worth, the following are my assumptions and assessment of MGX valuation:
FY22 - I am using a 65% Fe average price of USD150/t, a 60% Fe price of USD100/t and a 58% Fe price of USD72.50/t with a AUD/USD rate of 0.75. I am assuming MGX ships 1,400,000t of 65%, 600,000t of 60% and 1,000,000t of 58% and has direct costs of AUD77.50/t plus a further $15.0m of administration expenses.
The above throws out an EBITDA of $208m for FY22 and a NPAT of about $82m (so current market value would equate to 2.7x EBITDA and 6.8x PE). However, if I leave aside the cash pile and value earnings (NPAT) at 6x the underlying EV of the mining operations is $492m plus $365m of cash = $0.72 cps valuation.. If I value the mining operations at 5x EBITDA, then the value is $1,040m plus $365m of cash = $1.18 cps.
FY23 is where it gets more interesting: I am using (what I think) are conservative forward IO prices - 65% Fe average price of USD130/t, 60% Fe average price of USD80/t and a 58% Fe average price of USD57.50/t with a AUD/USD rate of 0.75. I am assuming MGX ships 3,350,000t of 65%, 250,000t of 60% and 1,000,000t of 58% and has direct costs (post all the stripping costs that are contained in FY22) of AUD57.50/t plus a further $15.0m of administration expenses.
The above for FY23 throws out an EBITDA of $403m and a NPAT of about $202m (EPS of about $0.17 cps). If I leave aside the cash pile and value earnings (NPAT) at 6x the underlying EV of the mining operations is $492m plus an estimated $445m of cash = $1.40 cps valuation.. If I value the mining operations at 5x EBITDA, then the value is $1,040m plus $365m of cash = $2.07 cps.
Trust this is of interest to others and happy to hear alternative views on prices, costs and volumes. I have no special knowledge here, but seeking to apply my analytical experience with some "guestimates" plus whatever public data I can find.
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MGX
mount gibson iron limited
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General Discussion and Valuations, page-6
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Last
37.5¢ |
Change
-0.005(1.32%) |
Mkt cap ! $442.6M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
38.0¢ | 38.5¢ | 37.5¢ | $419.7K | 1.105M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
5 | 278233 | 37.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
38.5¢ | 1830088 | 6 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 272833 | 0.375 |
2 | 200000 | 0.370 |
3 | 106164 | 0.365 |
5 | 195488 | 0.360 |
3 | 50388 | 0.355 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.385 | 200088 | 5 |
0.390 | 167500 | 5 |
0.395 | 306406 | 4 |
0.400 | 207337 | 13 |
0.405 | 82300 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 25/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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