This post is entirely spot on. What is driving price action over...

This post is entirely spot on. What is driving price action over recent weeks is people taking short term/near term trading views and the macro environment with higher rates isn't great and also isnt changing anytime soon. With the cost of finance now no longer cheap, things not producing cash like Gln are going to be marked much more harshly, and speculative cash washing through the market is now parked up or needs to see much surer short term bets than likely Gln presents at its current juncture.

Price is always determined by the marginal buyer and seller on a given day. While its a voting machine as Buffet describes , the votes are only cast by those buying and selling on the day. People with a longer term more fundamental view who remain holders don't obviously get a say in this ongoing daily vote. So I don't see this price weakness as any cause for concern if you bought as a long term fundamental investor. If you invested for 2024/2025/2026 on the basis of a mega trend, I dont see much at present to be worried about and I would advise you to switch off your PC over xmas and relax, the Galan and the larger EV story is still going in the right direction.

My biggest concern was demand destruction in China post next year ( with phasing out of subsidies) and possibly in Europe longer term from the energy price hikes this year post the Ukraine war slowing EV adoption. Europe already has slowed as the head of VW recently pointed out and this trend is likely to continue into the next year or two. People who argue that it will accelerate the EV transition have no clue what they are talking about. EV's remain dear for the average consumer to find the disposable income for to make the change with much of their disposable income being now sucked away from electricity and gas price rises of between 70-110 % range over most of the continent (UK included). Most people finance something like a car with debt finance too and that of course now is almost much more expensive.

However while all these macro effects may delay the uptrend somewhat, most of the transition is already baked into the cake through big government regulation, hence the transition will still happen. In fact I think its likely Europe will now want to greenwash itself even more through higher EV uptake in the coming years ( I wouldn't be surprised to see more government incentives coming down the pipe for european consumers to transition, and they are likely to copy the US inflation reduction Act in some respects also) as most countries there will have no choice with Russian gas now sanctioned to either not turn off existing coal plants or in the case of the UK and Germany to turn them back on. Energy security just as much as an energy transition has become a viable political consideration again. But this is likely to mean in my view EV's will probably have to do more of the carbon lifting so to speak to maintain the pretense of net zero 2050 ( or insert whatever year you want to score the virtue signal points you're after). So the megatrend hasnt changed in my view , maybe delayed slightly in europe and moreover I hate to say it but there is too many vested interests in Europe now for it not to proceed.

China has actually been a remarkable story this year considering the Covid lockdown insanity of the regime basically paralyzing the restart of the economy back to prepandemic levels. While the subsidies are slated to go next year, I think its very likely the regime will keep them on long enough to ensure the transition to EV's continues at a steady rate. China has a terrible smog problem ( with India and China comprising most of the top 100 polluted by particulate matter cities globally) and if one researches baseload power in China they are not going to be running on wind and renewables anytime soon for their baseload power.

That makes it all the more important for their regime to keep pushing an EV transition to a) keep some green credentials in terms of international commitments to reduce carbon and for health reasons with most of their 1.3 Billion population living in dense cities on their eastern seaboard to contain the smog problem which has huge long term detrimental health effects on the general population. Forget global warming as a driver for EV adoption in China, EV's though provide real tangible health benefits in China by improving air quality. In my view China cannot and will not transition away from Coal as the dominant driver of their domestic power anytime soon particularly as coal is plentiful in China and Mongolia and hence also cheap and wind is not overly prevalent in China either , only in far western regions of the country.

So the regime is likely to keep EV's adoption ticking along at a nice clip and if they finally accept Zero covid simply doesnt work as a policy which given recent demonstrations across China I think that message is finally getting through to Xi, you could see a nice bump up in EV sales in the next year or two even with the removal of the subsidy and my bet is if these sales do falter , that subsidy will be returned pretty quickly.

For mine Buffett's other advice about the share market being a device to move money from impatient to the patient is probably the key takeaway at the moment to consider while your eating your Xmas pudding this year.