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16.0¢ galan lithium limited

General Discussion Banter GLN, page-10591

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ResourceEagle

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18/01/23

15:58

Post #: 65756161
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Originally posted by paulgf: ↑

Stevo......no I wouldnt sell at $3.00. Jimenez quoted that brine assets were getting sold off ( based off resources in ground leading to expected annual production) for in range of $40 K USD per tonne of implied annual production. This is about right when you go through those sold in last year such as Neo Lithium.

I believe with DFS ( and last year's reserve expansion) we will come out at 30 ktpa , so by that metric he was using our takeover range would be $1.20 BN. ( $1.7 BN Aussie ) . That would put price closer to $5.00 . Now in the real world what you think something is worth and what you actually get are two different things, but you wouldn't want to be any less than $4.00 per share. In my humble view $3.0 would be selling ourselves short now and our board wouldnt be doing their job if they recommended an offer for $ 3.00. Even then on this style of calculation a suitor would be get candelas for zero, giving upside to buyer. This is all based on what we know today.

If they can firm up candelas into something more tangible with more drilling, a dfs and hence combined 40 ktpa output and then we can firm up greenbushes too, then price would need to be higher. Firming up Candelas such that 40 ktpa is acheievable would put a takeover price around $2.20 BN Aussie, but you call it $ 2.0 BN say or $6.60 per share.

Suspect with greenbushes if it proves up, to something of size, will need to be spun out to its own vehicle to extract true value for shareholders. Right now you couldnt put any value on it in a takeover situation.

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Yes, I realise I didn't specify in my post above - reasonable valuation range discussed was $900M-$1BN USD. Multinationals always talk USD in Argentina. Which is consisent with Jimenez's stated valuation metric.

And as you rightly pointed out PaulGF - that doesn't include Greenbushes - which lends itself perfectly to a spin-out now that we own 100%.

I would have been happy with $3.50, and probably still would be to be honest, but I am prepared to be patient to realise the valuations above, and higher, if the Chinese are as desperate as I am told.

Last edited by ResourceEagle: 18/01/23

GLN Price at posting: $1.21 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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General Discussion Banter GLN, page-10591

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