GLN 0.00% 16.0¢ galan lithium limited

General Discussion Banter GLN, page-11189

  1. 848 Posts.
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    Well done Hoopz, was what I was hoping to see.

    Actually I have maintained a reasonable position in LPI but smaller than my Gln punt ( having held at one point just under a million shares in LPI) but sold out in last few days. Gln represents much better value going forward in my view. I did alright out of LPI as I bought it when it was mid 20 's when it was clearly mispriced and sold half off when it hit 70 last year but LPI has been a bit of tale of frustration the last year and no matter what they seem to do, somebody in Chile , whether its some obscure local protest group or the new socialist government who are making a lot of noise about a State run Lithium company or Codelco , the state owned Copper mining co who thinks it should get first dibs on everything, all and sundry seem to be lining up to prevent it from moving on to production. I hope LPI shareholders are rewarded for their patience but for me I am now in my 50's and cant afford to take a hit on my investments and my concern for sovereign risks when looked at in totality just got to high for me to keep holding.

    While Argentina is also a socialist government, the strong support from the local state government in Catarmarca plus less complicated mining laws than Chile ( Chile has these old code concessions and new code concessions with different rules for each and I give LPI no chance of getting anything up now on the new code concessions which it must JV on with Codelco), so I remain positive that Galan will get to production before LPI does even though it is technically further advanced than Galan on paper.

    If LPI cant move forward on developing the newer code concessions with Codelco it could be stuck at around 15 Ktpa, which will makes it almost an inconsequential player globally by the time it likely gets to production. 15 Ktpa will make you good profits while prices remain well above $ 50,000 + per ton, but if we move back into a range of $ 30-40 K per Ton for carbonate longer term as I think we will once more supply comes online, at 15 Ktpa , plus with its big capex build costs necessary to deal with its high Mg issue, I cant see anywhere near the upside now with LPI compared to Gln, which has a real chance with Candelas of maybe hitting 40 Ktpa. That is the other thing you cant see in that graph above, LPI has higher Concentrations but also higher Mg content (impurities) so likely will end up with higher Opx and capex costs.

    There is also in my view no comparing JP's enthusiasm and with Jimenez on the board too, they are light years ahead of the LPI management team who are totally pedestrian. Given the headstart they had on their project , with them kicking it off way back circa 2016 I think from memory, that they aren't on the home stretch now to production speaks volumes and also obviously reflects the difficulties with executing a project in Chile in the lithium space.
 
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