GLN 5.56% 17.0¢ galan lithium limited

thanks GreeleafAlong with these three Strong Buy broker...

  1. 205 Posts.
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    thanks Greeleaf

    Along with these three Strong Buy broker recommendations, Macquarie also recently named Galan as one of their top three recovery recomenations on any snapback in the Lithium sector.

    It is easy to see why,

    All eyes are on the completion of financing for Phase One of this project, which is fully permited. The company is already building pond one out of its own pocket, and as Hoopz has pointed out, a recent satellite photo indicates that work has also commenced on pond two. These are the two biggest evaporation pounds out of a series of eight.

    This means that significant project equity is already being sunk into the $118m capex bill for phase 1. That would support debt for most of the remainder of the project funding for phase one, with only a relatively small amount of equity, at a guess around $20m, needed plug the gap for the remainder of the capex package.

    The company says it expects, in fact, to raise all this from off-takes/pre-payments in a non-dilutive manner. This does not seem a big ask at all.

    Even in a worst case scenario, and the company had to dip into the market and raise this top-up equity, it would only represent around 10% dilution. I would say this is highly unlikely.

    Once phase 1 funding is complete, the company will have a clear de-risked path to production, probably even before their stated 2026 target date, Given that the evaporation proceess in pond one is due to commence in the next quarter (the whole evaporation process takes a max of 18 months). We could well be looking at production in 2025, early 2026 at the latest.

    The funding of phase one also considerably de-risks phase two (20.000 tpa), which is ssentially just building out more ponds.

    So the stock ought to considerably re-rate once the “gap” funding for phase one is announced, which the company says it expects by the end of the year. By compatables, the stock should re-rate by several times.

    Galan also owns the best resource in Argentina and its take-over value, based on peer transactions, is something like five times the current market cap.

    Hence all the strong buy recommendations
    Last edited by Tigerthecat: 03/11/23
 
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