Thanks for the response RE. The charts you posted more or less...

Thanks for the response RE. The charts you posted more or less prove my point - look how drastically they've had to change their short/mid-term price outlook to bring it in line with reality. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs had a far more realistic long term SC6 price (and in the shorter term they suggested it could hit US$800/t and were widely panned by retail, and here we are at ~US$850/t in July futures). I don't like or believe everything GS say (especially not on their supply assumptions) but it's hard to argue that of all the big brokers, Macquarie have been out the most and Goldmans have been the closest to how prices have panned out. GS also got the thermal coal call closer than the other brokers, when everyone was euphoric about NEWC mooning in 2022.

On CXO, I'm not sure if you follow it closely (apologies if so), but "if they can weather the current downturn" cannot be the right take - they've already proven they can't make it, having killed their growth project and are going to have to C&M Grants. The 'project' is a bunch of satellite deposits with high strip ratio, dreadful recoveries and in a seasonal wet area. It's always going to be high cost due to it being a bunch of smaller deposits. Looking over at WA, it's no surprise it is the iron ore magnates who are buying up the hardrock projects, and it's the LTR's who attract the bids. The billionaires are saying lithium is going to be another bulk like iron ore where the deposit size and quality is going to make the difference. I think all these smaller projects will fall by the wayside as supply from the big ones ramps up. PLS, IGO, MIN - they're all way down the cost curve and all with aggressive supply growth plans. I think the CXO's and GL1's are likely going to be too small and expensive to matter.