I just don't buy the Glencore deal falling through narrative that everyone is spouting in terror.
while adverse to us shareholders, Glencore have GLN in an excellent position to make money from.
- glencore already have an interest in, and put in work on GLN as part of the offtake agreement.
- glencore can hedge against GLN's lack of equity by stipulating a raise as part of the funding agreement.
- the current market situation gives glencore all the negotiating power, and will allow them to have terms very favourable to themselves, at GLN's detriment.
Now, note that these dotpoints aren't really bullish for GLN; they imply that if the deal goes ahead, GLN will be scalped by Glencore.
however, they also strongly indicate the deal will go ahead.
i think there is a lot of upside in the medium term because of this. We will pay for it long term, but so will every single lithium hopeful at the moment that is trying to fund to production. And GLN's economics are far better than most.
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I just don't buy the Glencore deal falling through narrative...
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