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13.0¢ galan lithium limited

General Discussion Banter GLN, page-14922

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merwej

368 Posts.

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26/03/24

14:29

Post #: 73064842
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Originally posted by merwej: ↑

Mondy thanks for providing an analysis so that we can have a discussion. I appreciate the effort. Below I have given another view on the same numbers you had. Assuming that Capex will be US$401m for 20ktpa (this includes the 15% contigency). Hopefully we can save a bit. If Galan is happy to roll over the debt and are able to get new finance it shows that at 5400ktpa production level we are making A%22m profit (in line with you revised figures). They can have a dividend policy of 30% of FCF as dividends (same as PLS). Then the dividend yield would be 4.4%! This is at current low pricing and only 5400ktpa production and 15$ interest on loans.

At 20ktpa the dividend yield increases to 16% at current low lithium prices. 70% of FCF is still maintained in the company for paying of debt etc.

I also have a scenario if Lico2 pricing improves to US18000. The dividend yield at 30% of FCF is then 22.5% .

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My calcs are now out of date due to Hoopz post on allowing for depreciation of capex in tax. that would improve the dividend yield even more!

GLN Price at posting: 37.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Last 13.0¢		Change -0.005(3.70%)		Mkt cap ! $65.86M

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