Yep, it seems that no-one can get it right. There appears to be...

Yep, it seems that no-one can get it right. There appears to be no good analyst that has pricing data available to retail shareholders, or even available to lithium producers. While some investment bank forecasts have been close, it’s been shown in examinations of their models that they also used wildly incorrect assumptions. This makes their price predictions more likely to be luck than any actual foresight. I think you also pointed out that some paid for market analysts have delivered remarkably different long-term price forecasts mere months apart. The only conclusion I can reach is that currently no analyst should ever be trusted. “To trust is good, but not to trust is even better”

I think a big part of the problem is Western analysts apply Western ideas on profit/loss to Chinese converters, and they were too late to update pricing forecasts when geopolitical reasons and capturing market share became obvious drivers of the price decline late last year.

The only way I’ve been able to deal with the pricing situation is to use really low pricing assumptions to limit downside risk on my investments. For me now, any non-finished lithium e.g. spodumene or LiCl needs big discounts to account for final processing costs, and including those costs it needs to be profitable below $10,000-$12,000 per tonne.