(My first post here in long time. I write a weekly report under SYA, thread "SYA Weekly Report". I have been writing the weekly Lithium Report for last 3 years. Every week. So when I mention what I wrote last week - I am referring to that thread. It compares 90 ASX Li stocks and some US Li stocks, performance based on weekly/yearly basis. Also last year's performance. I also have commentary around General Markets as well as what I am doing. I like to write on stocks which I am playing. I write at that time (usually weekly) what I am doing, buying/selling, including the price I have bought and price I have sold. I do that for every stock that I write on. It may not mean to most, but I like to be transparent, and more importantly, information around what others are doing, may help someone. And I do it as it happens, not later. Not sure why, but that's me. Wish you all well. )
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Is Lithium back?..
From a weekly perspective, GLN had decent gain. Moved from 10.5 to 12.
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So what is happening? For those reading my posts, last week I had written that the Li play has got slightly better. ASX and US Li stocks were above 20% of their lows, and were holding the level. Only problem was Ganfeng. It was making 52 week lows every week. It was around 2% of its lows last week. I had written that there cannot be a party unless Ganfeng joins the party. I had also written that the best case positive scenario was that ASX and US Li stocks maintain their level and then Ganfeng rises to remove the divergence. So what happened? It played out exactly as I had wanted, if were to bottom and reverse. Ganfeng gave that signal yesterday, today it has nearly confirmed it. So probability for the reversal of the sector has increased considerably. We still need early next week for confirmation. But its looking good, the best in last several months.
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Personally, based on Ganfeng play yesterday, I got my first buy signal. The timing for me was good. As I had been writing, I was playing mostly Uranium stocks. They made good gains, from 30 to 60% in a short period. I felt it hard reached a decisive point. I got out fair amount from Uranium and put into Lithium. I bought half Li stocks yesterday and rest today. I have bought big. After several months have bought so much Li stocks in 2 days. Hopefully it's not another false start. It can happen, I am playing with my risk reward, please check yours and dyor, as the sector has been brutal for last 2 years, many false starts.
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Personally I picked up GLN after long time, both yesterday and today. Last I played I remember was over 2 years back. So a new play for me. GLN has had a rough time recently, I still remember 2 years back $2.35 was the high (around that), so we have lost a lot. But when I buy the sector, I buy at least 10 to 15 stocks. Same I did for Uranium, so in that vein I bought. Yesterday I bought at 11, today at 11.5, so my current average is 10.75. So not very far from where we are. My holding not very big at this stage, but if it crosses 14 decisively, and Li sector is also looking all right, I may add more. If it was a false start and Li sector collapses again, I will get out, hopefully with a small loss/gain.
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So what may happen next week? It would be an understatement if I said things are looking great. Ganfeng was twice stopped today. After 10% rise, stock trading is stopped. So after Ganfeng gained 10% in the morning, trading was stopped. It resumed in the afternoon, but punters were ready to buy up to daily 10% limit. So was stopped again in the afternoon. Few weeks back, Ganfeng had done the same 10% thing, but then gave it all back. But somehow it looks different this time, hopefully. Overnight US Li stocks, which had good gains yesterday, need to hold the level. Couple of percentages drop is still fine, we don't want 10% drop. But the more likely scenario is that ALB may reach 100 tonight, number not visited for over 2 months. Next number for ALB to watch is 106. Odds are good. Will it happen? Let's hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best.
(20min delay)