Consolidation or something to worry?.
From a weekly perspective, a small drop from 12 to 11.5. Volume usual.
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So what is happening? Chinese markets were closed this week, so practically we didn't get much direction. So most Li stocks stayed in consolidation zone. A few percent on the downside on average. ALB didn't have its mates, Ganfeng, Tianqi, etc. So did not know what to do. Usually there are 2 forces, Chinese and the rest, and usually they complement each other. So that play didn't happen. It was more or less a waiting game, trying to hold the level. So we wait, possibly for Monday.
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GLN too is playing that game, on a slightly weaker side, representing the macro. So nothing unusual till now. From a number perspective, 2 numbers I am watching to see where we may go, is 11 and 12.5. Anything in between is usual churn for me. Going either side,may mean, an action may be required, buy or sell.
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Personally I have been playing a lot of Li stocks, rotating or selling a portion and buying it back, in the hope of reducing the average. I do that all the time with a portion of my holding, those reading my posts would know. Sometimes it works, other times not, it somehow worked this week. On Monday, when ALB came back from 98, I realised the double digit gains is not for this week. So I thought we may consolidate, drift down a little, be in holding pattern, and wait for next week. Somehow it played out that way. I sold a bit but have not yet bought back. Reason being, when the going was good, many Li stocks were gaining 10/20%, GLN refused to do so. Don't know why. I can't change what is happening. Best I can do is follow. not much difference. Last week I wrote my average was just under 11, I got out a fair bit at 12, not much gain, but I didn't like the play, as of now, that could change though, who knows on Monday itself. . I want to see 12.5 crack, otherwise I feel its being managed by some big players, I am a small player, I can only follow. So now I wait to buy back. Overall I am still thinking we are in consolidation, but last 2 year has been brutal, so please check your risk reward and dyor. I am comfortable till now, but that could change. I try to follow price action.
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So what may happen next week? ALB is down 2% for the week, but ETF of LIT is up 2%. So narrow range, holding pattern. Many Li stocks had big gains last week, double digit gains, so may not be bad from that perspective. There has been attempts to push ALB down, but it has held till now. All 4 days it finished in the 94s, which is roughly 30% from its low. It has to hold tonight as well. Many may interpret this week play as weakness, it's possible, but there is no confirmation yet. No big sell offs. So looks like consolidation, but let's see. The main play is on Monday, Ganfeng rising 10% on each of its last 2 days. Will it continue, consolidate or drop big. We don't know. We wait. But it can give, at least, short term directions. Another pattern is ALB making double digit gains alternate week. If that continues, we may see ALB above my first confirmation of reversal, above 106 next week. Will that happen? Let's hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best.
(20min delay)