GLN (ASX) General Discussion Banter GLN

Originally posted by paulgf: ↑

Hi All..........long term holder in GLN, thought I would throw a few comments in. Over last few days I have liquidated all my LKE shares and flipped them into GLN. Own now approx 800,000 GLN shares now. Very bullish on Lithium and am invested also in GXY, PLS and EMH. I think JP has been following a steady and diligent course and for my part and doing a great job. I contrast that to LKE where the CEO seems to be in it first and foremost for himself with the company plagued by ridiculous financing structures, continual missed timelines on all their deliverables and a nagging feeling they are more hype than substance with them constantly rehashing the same news over and over. Initially I invested into LKE as I thought it made sense to get exposure to a company that seemed to be really trying to push the direct extraction approach , which would compliment their lower quality but large resource base, as I think longer term this technology will be a necessity for the supply chain as a whole. LKE however keep deflecting on how this element of their project is working and hard to decipher the truth from the spin and whether this technology is actually a real term viable proposition at least in the foreseeable future. Time will tell if I have made the right decision.

Irrespective of direct extraction vs more traditional methods, you can be technology agnostic I feel with GLN because the quality of their resource now being firmed up appears to be excellent. Even if they do older expensive traditional processing techniques, theu are going to have likely a very low cost of production. Based off research I did to help me construct a long run project NPV ( some using the LAC figures for cost of building plant etc), I have done up a very high level analysis of project value. I just focused on HMW and ignored Candelas resource using 2.30 million tonnes. I get an NPV using a discount rate for the project of 8% post tax of circa $2.80/share . Key assumption is longer run price of 10,000 USD per tonne of LCE and around $ 4,000 processing cost per tonne ( this is circa what LAC are predicting) . High sales compared to current price but could be conservative if the EV ramp up really gets going .

You could argue over a lot of the parameters in these sorts of models but whatever way you cut it $ 2.80 is a long way above $ 0.17 /share where it closed today ( though just see in post closing trade it settled at $ 0.18) . In large part this is why POSCO happily paid $ 280 M US for some of GXY's resource in the area. This share is starting to get into no-brainer territory for a potential large multi bag from here.

In my view I can see GLN running up quickly to $100 M market cap ( circa $ 0.50/share) , once people get their head around the recent resource numbers, then subject to a good PEA calculation , you could see easily $ 200 M mkt cap which would put it at about a $ 1.00 share price , pending some further dilution which will be necessary as you go all the way to fund this all the way to production stage.

Longer term then as the attached model I did shows, you could easily build a BFS case for a 50/50 debt to equity project that unlocks significant upside to shares going into full production and shares here could ultimately end up well over $2/share. My main worry in unlocking value now is us being swopped up cheaply by a bigger player but even in that scenario , it should see some sort of valuation of at least $ 200 M market cap , unless management and the board give the thing away too cheaply, but JP strikes me as being it to do the right thing by all shareholders.

Good luck to all............

Expand

One can bang on about DLE, but the process drops the Lithium into about 12% of the original volume of very clean water with hydrochloric acid in it.

Now where the hell you going to get all that water? But the real question is where the hell you going to get a permit for that water?

No.	Vol.	Price($)
15	183267	27.5¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

183267

27.5¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
28.0¢	293909	3

Price($)

Vol.

No.

28.0¢

293909

No.	Vol.	Price($)
14	162267	0.275
18	446843	0.270
6	635300	0.265
13	146313	0.260
6	167820	0.255

No.

Vol.

Price($)

162267

0.275

446843

0.270

635300

0.265

146313

0.260

167820

0.255

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.280	293909	3
0.285	187206	4
0.290	176391	7
0.295	185000	3
0.300	152968	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.280

293909

0.285

187206

0.290

176391

0.295

185000

0.300

152968

(20min delay)
Last 27.5¢		Change -0.055(16.7%)		Mkt cap ! $113.5M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
31.0¢	31.5¢	26.5¢	$2.064M	7.309M


Last 28.0¢		Change -0.055 ( 16.3 %)
Open	High	Low	Volume
31.0¢	31.5¢	26.5¢	4350070
Last updated 15.59pm 01/05/2024 ?

One can bang on about DLE, but the process drops the Lithium...

Featured News

Recharged Prospects: 'Watts' on the horizon for copper & lithium

Lithium Universe ends the quarter charged up for Quebec Refinery roll-out

Provident Aurum's off-market bid sends Sihayo shares soaring

Why Princeton Professor rates BlinkLab's autism & ADHD screening app

Carnarvon revs up for revised Dorado Development

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

One can bang on about DLE, but the process drops the Lithium...

Featured News

Top Stories

Recharged Prospects: 'Watts' on the horizon for copper & lithium

Lithium Universe ends the quarter charged up for Quebec Refinery roll-out

Provident Aurum's off-market bid sends Sihayo shares soaring

Why Princeton Professor rates BlinkLab's autism & ADHD screening app

Carnarvon revs up for revised Dorado Development

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News