your analysis is sound in my view . The bigger issue is simply not enough lithium supply , hence demand is being constrained by supply at present albeit there is a heap of other things also constraining supply like automotive chips .
Therefore the price rises are in fact good as it should help accelerate supply and with financing of projects . In fact this is pretty much how capitalism works in a nutshell in a competitive market . Yes upstream in this thread shiok’s is right , demand outweighs supply , price goes up . But that is half the picture in a functioning market . This is why capitalism beats socialism hands down because price is the mechanism by which resource reallocation works . Players responding to price signals where new investment goes rather than some know nothing bureaucrat . Price has far more effect than any green subsidy ever will . The fact the clowns at Goldman sachs do not understand these basic facts in how a competitive market works ( and this is a Wall Street firm ) shocks me although probably indicates it was always fake news to try and lower the price of equities in this space .
The biggest other risk at present is a rapid slowdown in European sales of evs which are already slowing simply because no one in Europe has got any money with their energy costs tripling in consequence of the ukraine war . That will hit demand over the next couple of years but in a way given the supply shortages at the moment it’s a bit of a moot point , but it’s worth keeping an eye on . We are all favoured if ev sales really accelerate in both the eu and the us and it stops being such a China centric story which if you look at the ev sales at present , remains very much the case .
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