GLN 8.00% 11.5¢ galan lithium limited

Yes they do. The NPVs are calculated by using a Discounted Cash...

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    Yes they do. The NPVs are calculated by using a Discounted Cash Flow approach where all future cashflow (inflows and outflows) are added together on a discounted basis (usually at a rate of 8%). This just means that as you move further into the future the cashflows are discounted more heavily (e.g. after 10 years they are discounted by 50%, after 20 years they are discount by 80% - when using an 8% rate). In this model any capex including initial capex is considered to be a cash outflow so it will reduce the overall cashflow and therefore the NPV amount. Because the majority of capex is spent in the 1st year(s) it is discounted the least (or not at all) - this can have the effect of reducing the NPV by the full amount of the initial capex.

    You should use the NPV to value the company pre-production - using a higher percentage of the NPV as you get closer to production (i.e. as you move through the feasibility stages, offtakes, financing, and finally begin construction). After construction is complete and you begin production you can start to use PE multiples to value the company. In the above spreadsheet I am using post tax free cash flow (usually the average for the LOM - FCF may be lower during the early years as you ramp up depending on the production profile) and applying a PE multiple to determine a post production valuation. The problem with this approach is that capex is not included. This is why I also have the "% of PE (Diluted)" column. This column takes the capex and uses the ownership and debt/equity figures to work out how much equity (new shares) will need to be issued to raise the company's share of the capex (which not necessarily 100% of the capex). The dilution that issuing these new shares creates is then taken into account to reduce the valuation. So basically high capex projects are penalised as you can see if you compare the "% of PE (Value)" and "% of PE (Diluted)" columns for any given valuation. The new shares are assumed to be issued at the current share price which in most cases will be a more conversative approach as normally the share price will increase considerably before the financing stage - so large capex projects get a double hit here (especially large capex projects where the current market cap is small).

    So basically capex is taken into account in both the NPVs and the in "% of PE (Diluted)" figures.

    Hope this helps.
    Last edited by HOOPZ: 06/10/22
 
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