Well lets look at the assumptions you did explicitly make...

Well lets look at the assumptions you did explicitly make then:

1) Long term lithium pricing "I personally do not think the DFS will use a higher price than US$18.5k

Whilst I agree that the current Spot Price of US$70-80/kg is out of hand, I have reviewed pricing metrics from Benchmark Minerals, Roskill, Macquarie, Credit Suisse which have respective forecasts between 2035 to 2041. All 4 majors have current battery grades pricing in excess of US$20/kg (Up to US$29/kg)

Are you aware of any credible analyst that has a long term forecast at or below US$18.5/kg ?



2) Initial Capex " That said, I think you have to remember that at PEA stage Hombre Muerto West had "initial" capex of US$338M plus 30% contingency. That's US$439M and with a weak Aussie dollar you're currently looking at A$656M or ~155% of our market cap. Despite the 30% contingency I'm of the view that costs will have pushed beyond even that threshold (don't forget it was released almost two years ago now, December 2020)"

I would agree that if Galan were to execute the same strategy from scratch today as what the company planned within the PEA, the costs would have increased exponentially. As Many have pointed out the initial Capex won't include a Carbonate Plant or the Associated Infrastructure / Consumables to operate a carbonate plant. Secondly, it wont include the need for production wells as 3 production wells have now been drilled as part of the Pilot Plant.

The DFS would be the equivalent of comparing an apple with a orange. The initial Capex is more likely to surprise given a 20Ktpa LCE (Chloride Only) operation could be built for ~US$250m, even in the current high inflation environment. Of course the company may choose to expand the number of ponds in a Chloride Only scenario and increase it to say 30ktpa LCE (again without a carbonate plant or associated infrastructure / consumables).

But we will have to await the DFS for confirmation as to date the company has been abit light on with specifics