Mondy thanks for providing an analysis so that we can have a discussion. I appreciate the effort. Below I have given another view on the same numbers you had. Assuming that Capex will be US$401m for 20ktpa (this includes the 15% contigency). Hopefully we can save a bit. If Galan is happy to roll over the debt and are able to get new finance it shows that at 5400ktpa production level we are making A%22m profit (in line with you revised figures). They can have a dividend policy of 30% of FCF as dividends (same as PLS). Then the dividend yield would be 4.4%! This is at current low pricing and only 5400ktpa production and 15$ interest on loans.
At 20ktpa the dividend yield increases to 16% at current low lithium prices. 70% of FCF is still maintained in the company for paying of debt etc.
I also have a scenario if Lico2 pricing improves to US18000. The dividend yield at 30% of FCF is then 22.5%.
General Discussion Banter GLN, page-14920
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