if you scroll through twitter these days and looking for $gln,...

if you scroll through twitter these days and looking for $gln, you'll quickly become aware of the self-proclaimed 'king'. his self-declared goal is to protect the 'little people' from ruin. honorable approach. with impressively edited charts he shows that gln fits in with names like lke, sya or ltr.

if you just limit yourself to the chart, i agree with him. to be fair, this applies to a number of other stocks in the sector. instead of asking himself whether this might have something to do with the lithium sector and the falling prices for carbonate, hydroxide or spodumene, he comes to the conclusion that gln, like other companies mentioned as examples, has a fundamental problem. thank god he enlightens us by saying that the announcement of a planned carbonate plant caused the capex predicted by the market to increase by almost double. he overlooks the fact that this has already been stated in various presentations and timelines. this step was neither surprising nor did it actually lead to a doubling of the capex. i don't need to mention that gln currently has a fundamental problem with its finances. the atm announcement neither solved this problem nor contributed to calming the sp. it probably had a counterproductive effect. finances are the biggest problem for this company. anyone who invests here should be aware of this.

i think it's wrong to put gln in the same row as the other companies he listed. not only does he mix all the companies (dle, hard rock, etc.), he also seems to lack a feeling for an investment period and the individual willingness to take risks of the 'little people'. the current market offers dozens of opportunities to invest money allegedly profitably over a short period of time. probably also in the medium term. i've been following a lot of people here for several years. some of them are probably underwater. i'm currently underwater too. first time i bought gln was when it was over 1.00 aud. i continued buying it as it sank. for me personally it is clear that if a study states the start of production as 2025, this will probably be delayed between 2 - 5 years. when i buy for the first time in 2022, i know in advance that a lot can go wrong before production and also that i could potentially be at risk of a total loss. what the 'king' is completely hiding is that gln is probably currently at the bottom of the lassonde curve. looking back, there were certainly better ways to be a part of this journey. limiting your upside to risk less downside is probably one of rick rule's most valuable tips.

i've mentioned several times that i think gln offers the most upside potential. this is just my opinion and it would be negligent to claim that i want to 'guide the little people'. some will probably know that i put a lot of work into modeling different scenarios. i have done this not only for gln, but also for a number of other companies in this sector. for the sake of completeness, i had positions in other companies such as wr1, sya, cxo, ... currently i only have a position in gln. this is no cross promotion.

gln is very different from the other companies mentioned.
* 100% ownership
* two high grade assets
* two excellent dfs for stage one and two
* low forecast opex - this leads to passing several stress tests (npv remains positive even with goldman sachs' bear case (~10,000 usd/t))
* currently under construction
* excellent relationships with local government / community
* top class team in some areas (pond construction, dj, relationships, ..), each of whom is currently doing outstanding work
* approvals for stage one (including construction permit which was granted for 24 months)
* approvals for stage two are on the way, according to mgmt
* possible export approval on the way
* ...

of course, there are also disadvantages which, in conjunction with sector wide pressure / current lithium price, could provide a possible explanation for the sp.
* financial reserves
* lack of stage one investment commitments
* atm announcement
* in my opinion, the cfo has not covered himself in glory (however, i have already said this in an earlier post)
* the current perception is that gln is more or less a pawn of glencore
* lack of transparency
* jp's experience as ceo
* exploration coy gamble

let's go through the negative things:
* financial reserves / lack of stage one investment commitments / atm announcement
i am still of the opinion that a complete halt to construction activities would result in significantly higher costs than a slowdown. apart from that, gln has already started production. i have no idea how an interruption in construction activities would affect the brine currently in production. nobody can judge steps behind the scenes, as most likely none of us are/were personally present in discussions with potential investors or glencore. it would be madness if several members of the mgmt put their own money into this (currently) unprofitable company just to roll a dice on the edge of the abyss. everyone has their own explanation for the current fiasco gln is in. you can try to find someone to blame and talk about consequences for days. you can accept a loss and move on. it doesn't change the fact that i trust this mgmt to turn things around. this is just my personal opinion. yes, money is urgently needed and yes, atm gives the impression of pure desperation. the option has not yet been exercised. i hope this is more of a last resort, we will never take. fingers crossed.

* in my opinion, the cfo has not covered himself in glory (however, i have already said this in an earlier post)
my personal opinion. seen from the outside (without standing behind a curtain in jp's office and seeing the big picture), the cfo would have had to be the first to intervene in order to start the cost intensive construction without the necessary reserves. but now we are here. there is no turning back. surprise me and show me that i was wrong about you.

* the current perception is that gln is more or less a pawn of glencore
many see a kind of david versus goliath. at the end of the day, it's about making money for both parties. it's hard to imagine that glencore came to the table with the intention of letting gln starve to death. the team and the relationships with the local government/community give gln a decisive advantage. what is currently failing cannot be said from the outside and without background knowledge. no one can feed their family on speculation and possible explanations.

* lack of transparency
classic. many are outraged that not every detail is shared publicly. sometimes it is more valuable not to communicate every detail. this applies especially to pricing and negotiations with several parties, which are conducted in parallel. what should be highlighted is the fact that the company's communication has improved significantly. even if the investor question rounds are no longer taking place. if this serves as an exchange for an solution to the financial problems and jp therefore has no free capacity, this is acceptable to me.

* jp's experience as ceo
correctly. there are a lot of experienced and probably better ceos out there. however, there are also a much larger proportion of worse ceos out there. it's always easy to try to judge from the outside how suitable a person is for this position or not. if you think you can do better, you should either write an application to the mgmt or, better, start your own company. look how far this, disrespectfully called by some, 'uber driver' has come. he sits at a table with glencore (one of the world's largest raw materials traders), the local government or sector heavyweights (ganfeng) and is leading a company into production. something that a large proportion of explorers never achieve. gln is also not a lifestyle company, as some people falsely believe. over 90% of the available funds goes directly into the development of hmw.

* exploration coy gambling
the most disappointing point for me. gambling with shareholder money in explorers that have no apparent connection to hmw/greenbushes should be avoided in the future. it has absolutely no added value for the company's strategy.


wish you a good start into the week.