Hi
@ThePastaMate, as I mentioned in a previous post, CGB's trading position, IMO, involves a very complex and wide-ranging set of dynamics that has been building up over a long period of time which may explain how we have come to this current "Mexican Stand Off' position. So I can only offer an educated best guess/opinion from observations and analysis over the years. No-one, other than the company and the ASX, know the exact identity of the traders.
Here are a few thoughts. You are welcome to agree or disagree.
I think we are all aware that CGB, has been beset with P & D trading action for years now. And after the recent trading action, January through February, we have also seen some unusually large single packet buy/sell activity, followed by the stacking of the sell queues from 0.01 to 0.02. This has lead me to the conclusion that we are "possibly" dealing with opportunistic, well healed swing traders, profiteering and deep pocket Retailers accumulating, not Insiders or big end of town money, as some may think.
Source: Barchart.comView attachment 2924329Over the past few weeks I have also been looking into the trading activity of CGB (QBL) going back to 2014. I am very familiar with crunching numbers and analysing data so I went looking for identifiable patterns of behaviour that might explain our current situation. I noticed some very clear patterns of trading behaviour on certain days that was leading me to look at one particular group i.e. Retailers. I believe, for the main part, that Retailers (General Public) are, and have been the main group responsible for the P & D action over the years and the current trading action.
So T.P. from what I am seeing, and from observing discussion on SM I believe that there are a large number of Swing, small FOMO and Deep Pocket Retail Traders trading this.
At this time I cannot see any evidence of trading activity by Insiders (Director, Officers, Employees) that might lead one to believe that the owners are deserting the ship or selling for "lifestyle" purposes. There has been some Insto money in/out trades for sure, over the years, but the main year on year trading and current trading going back to 2014 seems to point to, Retailers (General Public) taking opportunistic profits and driving sentiment, IMO.
Ownership data going back a few years definitely points to increased ownership by Retailers and confirms that Insiders are investing more, not selling more, which would normally be considered a good thing. Data provided by Simply Wall Street.
I will add a further post later today or tomorrow with historical trading data and pattern behaviour.
Feb 5 to 17 - Retailers 3,715,538,954 (65%)
January 18 - Retailers 3,704,622,287 (64.9%)
December 22 - Retailers 3,643,714,037 (64.6%)
No change in Institutions, Public Companies, Private Companies or Insiders according to Simply Wall Street.
View attachment 2924405End of January 2018Retailers have always held/controlled the larger percentage of the company.
Retailers - 855,309,645
Private Companies - 344,880,151
Public Companies - 193,597,612
Insiders - 116,200,589
Institutions - 15,404,931
View attachment 2924420Feel free to draw your own conclusions. All data should be open to fact checking.
This could leave CGB in an unusual trading position, moving forward. Perhaps for another discussion.
Cheers...59
