General Discussion IG6, page-446

https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/battery-raw-materials-market-update-march-2025/

Graphite: Graphite market update: surging petroleum coke prices and rising spherical graphite costs

Key points

1. Green petroleum coke prices skyrocket by 68%
   In mid-February, green petroleum coke prices skyrocketed by 68%, from $457 (3330 yuan) to $768 (5600 yuan) per tonne. The spread between low sulphur green petroleum coke and green petroleum needle coke narrowed to merely $20 from the traditional $300-$400. Green petroleum coke is a major feedstock in the production of battery anode material and prebaked anodes for aluminium production.

2. Supply shortages and policy shifts drive petroleum coke surges
   The unexpected surge in green petroleum coke prices was driven by concerns of supply shortages due to a significant drop in imported volumes to China from the US in the second half of 2024. Additionally, following changes in policy for the deduction of consumption tax on fuel oil in China, many small and medium-sized refineries went into shutdown and maintenance, with the operating level of refineries in the Shandong province falling below 50%—the lowest in the past 3 years, thus lowering petroleum coke production.

3. Spherical graphite prices rise amid petroleum coke surge
   Spherical graphite, made from natural graphite, increased for the first time since March 2022 in reaction from suppliers to the rising prices of green petroleum coke, the main feedstock for synthetic graphite.

What do our analysts say?

Increasing petroleum coke prices would add more pressure to Chinese anode makers, who have seen their profit margins eroded over the last year amid overcapacity and severe competition. Depressed anode prices are beginning to take their toll in China, with a court ruling Shanshan, the largest synthetic anode producer, to enter bankruptcy reorganization due to inability to serve its debts to Chinese banks, while several other anode producers slowed down their expansion plans. The anode industry might be heading into a period of consolidation, with a handful of players being able to survive under a low-margin environment and constant technological innovation.

Georgi Georgiev, Fastmarkets