Hi all.. hope everyone is well.
I have been spurred on to do some further research here from a conversation I had online the other day and noticed at the beginning of this thread there was some good points discussed regarding IG6 pivoting from being a processing only operation to realizing they needed to be fully mine-to-market and vertically integrated for many reasons aforementioned.In terms of positives, jurisdiction is a tick, management are obviously exceptional, space/timing couldn't be better etc. I am simply trying to poke holes in this story before being comfortable enough to make any investment so please don't bite my head off for trying to spur some civil debate.
I am trying to make sense of the value proposition here, specific to the company.
First off, in regards to managements pivot, I think this is pretty late? Why the lack of foresight and why such a late pivot to mining? They have been deep-dialled into the industry for years now and surely would have thought they'd need to produce the raw concenrate themselves for full geopolitical risk aversion (given everything is mined in China), ESG reasons and value-creation throughout the chain (and ultimately for shareholders?)
Why did they think buying con was a good idea or why did they not think that flake prices would rise substantially along with the overall thematic, pricing them out of that option? I understand they have a lead with technical experience and so forth but can someone shed any light on this?
I'm trying to work out their route to market.
Judging by the slide posted above and now reposted below, they will have a FS (of which confidence interval?) completed by December 2023 (which is really February 2024+ in mining years) and a FID probably mid 2024, a funding process somewhere in amongst this (either debt/equity, pre-payment or partial sale etc) which could delay things and then a build time (depending on what they go for) of 12-18 months should all things go well (depending on size of plant/operation. Lets say 18 months to go conservative which is wise with all mining companies.
So looking at some sort of scaled, volume production in late 2026? Notwithstanding a fair bit of variables above.
The commercial micronising component of the plant is immaterial to cashflows as its a part of the flowsheet to PSG product, unless they just want to sell a micronised product which I can kind of understand while they try to grow to the next few stages. They then need to coat it and will eventually sell it. Sure they may build a small production scale plant next year but they still have to pay for the ore and find a seller happy to take product for a few years before they switch to their own, are these short-term spot agreements sufficient to get funding for larger operation later?
In the interim, before they have a mine, if they are using someone elses con then the end customer is tuning that con to their end specs, how are they going to lock in supply load agreements for Springdale when they need to eventually switch to their own con? Customers want consistancy in supply and proof of longevity throughout different stages of the orebody.. we are years away from being able to prove that up.
$26m MC I can definitely see how it would work through a secular pump but would really appreciate some people's thoughts on my queries above.
Like I said, just trying my best to pick holes in this. If I take a position its usually a decent crack so just want to have some healthy discussions about this. I haven't finished researching the company/spoken to management yet either.
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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7.0¢ | 273899 | 2 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 63465 | 0.066 |
1 | 38000 | 0.065 |
1 | 20000 | 0.060 |
1 | 15000 | 0.057 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.070 | 273899 | 2 |
0.087 | 250564 | 1 |
0.090 | 20000 | 1 |
0.092 | 107500 | 1 |
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