Yes, its good to see that the level around 20 has held support strongly, once again. It had only faltered once in August when SP went down to 17, otherwise this level is key as well as good support.
I have read a lot about the conversion of oppies being key reason for SP not able to move up. Although that may be a factor, but my thinking is that may not be the main game. One, not everyone will need to sell to convert oppies. Also, once they convert, not everyone needs to sell the heads as they may have become overloaded. Reason being conversion price is 10c so not big difference, but certainly can be a factor. So till that overhang goes away, stock could waver around here for another week or two.
The reason I say that oppies conversion may not be main game is the same argument I have used before. MEI first entered 20s in May this year. Its been 7 months now and it has not been able to get out of key trading zone between 20/28. So whatever be the reason for that, that reason may still have an influence. I don't know what's the reason, but it is based on pattern I and many may have observed. As I have said before, for me it is very difficult to quantify market caps based on fundamentals. I have seen big stocks like LTR moving 50% in a day - gaining few billion dollar or losing few billion dollars just in a day. Not on any drill results etc related to fundamentals, but just if an offer is made, or taken away. Why is the offer (making an offer or getting out of an offer) so much important. Other fundamentals don't change in a day. So its sentiment, perception, etc. Hence I primarily follow price action.
Also REE is still not doing great. VMM made a big jump to around 241 and came back to 135 - losing over 40% in a short time. So its very volatile. Other big/advanced stocks like IXR/DRE/HAS/PEK and even LYC not doing great. If we take out WA1/MEI and to certain extent ENR, rest is pretty bad on a yearly basis (based on the Weekly Report data which is below). . Personally I am still waiting. Many times tempted to trade within this zone of 20/28 but have left it for now. I also feel if that theory of 500m market cap acting as barrier for some reason is true (which has been for last 7 months), then now 500m would be reached on SP just over 25, so wary of that. But this is just an opinion, we don't know the cause, but not knowing the cause I have relied on this theory for now. I would like to see price move out of this zone. . So an important week coming up. Most oppies should be converted soon. 21st is last day. So lets hope we see a good price action after that. All the best.
For those interested how MEI is tracking against other REE stocks or who hold multiple REE stocks, I do a Weekly Report across 26 ASX REE stocks. It has got Weekly/Yearly data how stocks are tracking. I also have commentary across general markets and sector. Those just holding specific stocks, it may not be relevant, so please ignore.
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