Been following and holding AGY for a while now.. long time reader first time poster on HC.
Getting pretty disgruntled with the information flow / updates and performance from them. Had a long look through old announcements and its with good reason that im not impressed. have been averaging down (will do again) to hold on and wait for this thing to go like everyone hopes it will
Go back through 3 years of announcements from 2016 to today. They have not met their announced timelines / targets / forecasts.
this includes: - time to build test plant / get plant operational / produce product / deliver product - get approvals/permits - multiple failed off take agreements that were anno but never delivered - never got a jv with argentina that was announced as in discussion but never delivered - had "strategic advisors" to help with above that disappeared with no delivery - no actual locked in funding in sight due to real issues with production capacity and permits - had to go to market to multiple times fundraise via SPP to top up funds to keep going because no deal locked in - 1st produced 99.6% LC Aug 18 (how much in weight - 1KG or 100KG or 1T??) - took 7 months to get interest in product - took 12 months to get plant operational from 1st produced product - havent been able to deliver any product from a 500t nameplate plant in 3 months from a plant that was able to produce 14 months prior and commissioned 3 years earlier. - have a 12 month agreement to deliver 100T to Mitsi RTM - where is the first shipment?
yet Jerko keeps saying "fast tracked" / everything is great / we are kicking goals in anno's well when you read back through the older ones... they havent closed on the goals they talked up in the timelines they predicted them. thats the biggest issue here, saying will deliver x by x then nothing and silence..then making noise that they half delivered but its great progress
dont call me a downramper or a fudster, ive been on this ride with everyone else. im just bloody pissed, the day dream this is going double my cash (why else hold speccys?) has turned to hope ill get it back When I say get it back / within a time line that actually gives a ROI worth the last couple years of holding / great is goes up in 3 years from now - nope..fortunately im not so deep in I cant afford to hold or absorb the loss but no ones likes to bloody lose do they...
AGY needs to take some big steps and give fair market updates to highlight what is really happnening and when substantial events will occur.. or like the last 3 years will get "hopeful" anno with SP spikes then SP lists back down with loss of faith and again and again the rollercoaster..
Be great to hear the following Anno: - 1st delivery of 25T has shipped out / plant is actually able to produce product in volume in a timely manner (evidence genuine capacity) ( dont want to hear but it takes time to get started cant expect 1st shipment quick.. has been 3 years in the making.. 1st LC produced 12mths+ prior) - permits approved for 2000T plant (what is the true story here? why the delays, why not lodged earlier as per prior annos) - funding agreement not just announced but delivered cash in bank (lets see that Mitsu cash for real and or Korea with the jump on for stage 3) - plant is commissioned and time line for completion
there is still a real threat that AGY fails altogether or just drags on for years and doesnt achieve much and SP stays where it is. the oh but we got pablo and the market needs LC for electric cars talk is all BS.. the company needs to prove its able to progress from being a start up with big dreams to an actual miner. these next steps are important to move from being pie in the sky pissing away cash to the real deal..
question is.. when is the next anno? tomorrow / next week / next year? what will it say? they delivered and are on track or shite is just dragging on but make it sound rosy? What will the SP do / is it worth holding or just cut and run for greener pastures?
Personally patience is wearing thin... at best will give until prob March 2020 for these goals to eventuate. then genuine questions around what is fair market SP forecast will be determined to hold or sell At some point you gotta move on.. ill double down now and here is hoping the batch i pick up at 6.8c pays divis for Xmas!
good luck to all DYOR
AGY Price at posting:
6.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
