Interesting first time post OGF123.... you do raise some pertinent points, but I'm asking myself how closely you've been following and/or how in depth is your analysis/research/knowledge of AGY's past. Apart from reading ANN's, have you attended any AGM's, spoken/emailed JZ, looked beyond HC for research material, discussion points, feedback, etc.
Anyway, there are a few of us here who have done this and try to share unemotional, substantiated info ... readers can then decide how this fits in with their own analysis and investment/risk profile.
Timelines This is probably the most frustrating issue - we all have expectations that are mostly relative to our own timeframes - some are as short as days/weeks, some are long term and looking to the next 5 - 10 years. To the best of my knowledge, I'm not aware of AGY ever making a claim of such and such will be delivered by X. The language has rather been imminent, targeted for the quarter, etc. The problem with timeframes, especially those relying on third parties such as local government, is that they are outside of AGY's control. BUT, whilst things might seem to take time to come to fruition, thus far, AGY have delivered on their state objectives (and thrown in a few unexpected bonuses as well!).
Off-take Agreements To the best of my knowledge, the only "deal" AGY has previously ANN'd was the one with Qianyun in late 2017. It's all there for investors to read/research. The short version is that it was AGY who told Qianyun to go take a running jump when they tried delaying tactics and were playing silly buggers in the final days of negotiating the agreement. AGY had already granted them one extension, but called a halt when they continued with the delaying tactics. The abbreviated highlights of this is that AGY didn't end up giving away a board seat to a Chinese rep from Qianyun, AND kept the approx $1m deposit.
JV with Argentina Don't know what this relates to?
Took 7 months to get interest in product Shareholders were first aware that Mitsubishi were on the scene in Nov 2017 (EGM) when they made their first site visit to Rincon. The journey has been a long and methodical one... and that's what makes it a potentially strong and lasting one. Mitsubishi have been along for the journey whilst the Stg 2 ponds and the Pilot Plant have been built, the process has been proven, the product quality has been tested, retested and accepted/endorsed by Mitsubishi. The fact that they have now signed a HOA speaks volumes for the strength and potential longevity of the relationship.
Pilot Plant operational for 3 years No idea where this came from. The Pilot Plant was operational in Apr 2018, ie approx 18 months ago. Since then, it's been used for it's intended purpose, ie to prove that the process works and that consistent quality product can be produced over successive processing runs. The pilot plant was never intended as a commercial concern, but rather as a stepping stone proving ground, which has achieved it's purpose of securing a Tier 1 Li customer.
100t Mitsubishi product Yes - it would be good to have an update on how this is going. BUT, IMO, we need to take a chill pill on this. The deal is only for 100t... it was a stepping stone/proving ground of ability and good faith between AGY and Mitsubishi. However, the fact that MtR have now made the HOA public knowledge, it's more or less a mute point. Mitsubishi have been with AGY for the past 2 years, watching them develop their Rincon tenements, prove their abilities and product quality and this has culminated in a HOA. The 100t was an amuse bouche, not the main course.
Anyway - it's late, I'm tired and the above points are just offered to readers in an attempt to try and provide context and (to the best of my ability) an accurate recount on AGY's history.
People will buy, sell or hold regardless of what I post... I'd just like to encourage people to make such decisions based on considered information... and not just what they read on HC... and not just AGY in isolation, but rather consider the whole Li sector and where you see this sector going in the near future, and where you see AGY in the pecking order of risk/potential on investment return.
AGY Price at posting:
6.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)