I'm starting to think I am a little more optimistic than most. But my thoughts are more that there are so many things that could go
right as opposed to not to plan, which each independently could lift the MCap and SP far higher than where it currently sits.
I have a lot of respect for
@capriccioso thoughts and will steal his/her points with my thoughts added:
- I'm not concerned about gold price. I could see it falling below the current spot price zone, but not back to anywhere near 1650 next couple of years;
- I'm pretty comfortable with the legalities of our dispute based on information available. I can't see AAU losing that case, and DR have exhausted all avenues of appeal. Remaining risk I think possible is DR simply not paying -> but ultimately I don't think they can't afford the commercial condemnation of ignoring an international court decision.
- On the finance side, for me this remains the big fish. Agree a risk -> but I trust Brian's experience to get something done, and I trust his shareholding to get it done in a way that suits all holders.
- I feel offtakes may come together with finance. Not too concerned based on Brian's interviews suggesting they are working through potential partners. I feel like worst case if Brian does struggle, he just gives a bit more of the ample mine profit share to get something done.
- Exploration results: La Dem is already bankable (if finance achieved). We know that, and all indications the NPV will get better with forthcoming June drill results. New mine prospects - who knows. Dr Grainger is making the calls, and I can't think of any reason why he would suggest new focus areas without genuinely liking the prospects? And given there are three big plays he is excited about
surely at least one of them will prove him correct. This is not a fair playing field: Most companies buy tenements and use near-ology as a start point. He has ooooooodddles of data to make far more educated decisions,
and we don't have to buy the tenements!- The existing equipment is not in my calculations. Anything gained there is a bonus to me.
- US sanctions. Sure, agree there is a risk. For me the potential upside is so good against current SP and MCap that I guess I am willing to accept this risk - especially given the court case potential windfall that is sitting in the background, which would pay out the entire MCap - with change - if for any reasons AAU could no longer trade.
Just my thoughts.
I am genuinely looking forward to seeing whether others demonstrate/evidence similar views as Brian and the team conduct their investor tour over the next few weeks. I guess only time will tell. See where we are at come mid June.
GLTAH
(20min delay)