Yes - not only were we lucky but we also very fortunate with the amount of robust research freely shared on the Alcidion forum during those tough times. In some sense, we helped each other to see Alcidion's potential and evaluate the attractive risk-reward proposition.
The funny thing I see now is that most commentators and analysts are mostly limiting themselves to extrapolating Alcidion's penetration of the NHS Trusts in their assessment. Nothing wrong with that but the webinar and recent developments have clearly shown that Alcidion has set their sights much higher and there are many developments most investors might have forgotten, including:
development of a health data 'ecosystem'
penetration of the private sector (anyone remember Calvary and Healthscope?) The work that Alcidion had been commissioned to do are the first step to much a deeper potential involvement
PoC on the NSW front. I understand that the procurement panel has been established so things should start to happen soon.
Other known knowns include:
Structural shifts in healthcare funding which would provide the impetus for change (e.g. hospitals being financially penalised for avoidable mistakes rather than being given more money to rectify the mistake)
Continual rise of big data in healthcare delivery and predictive healthcare
Acceleration in the digitisation rate as goverments are forced to manage the rise in healthcare costs, including avoiding large costly capex in building hospitals and beds (where possible) and disproportionate staffing-patients levels
Other known unknowns include:
Consolidation of all the DHBs in NZ with a National Health Agency (result of the Simpson review). It will have a very strong focus on effective use of medical data and evidence based research. Patentrack holds the dominant position in the market
Increased compliance requirements flowing through from the Aged Care Royal Commission. $18 billions will flow through into the sector and some areas that Alcidion potentially could be involved in a number of areas, including monitoring of patients via wearable medical devices (as demonstrated in yesterday's webinar)
Other unknown unknowns include:
Structural shifts in how health insurance premiums are calculated, including more targeted pricing and providing insurance incentives. Higher-risked customers can potentially reduce their insurance premiums and excess by participating in targeted innovative insurance programs in the form of wearable medical devices to monitor patient's health data in real time (e.g. exercise trackers and heart rate sensors) and take preventative care.
ALC Price at posting:
42.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
