ALC (ASX) General Discussion / Social Media

Originally posted by composer: ↑

I have also been pondering on Alcidion quite a bit of late!

Emotions are understandably running a bit high given the share price decline, particularly for a stock that some of us have relatively high conviction.

From my perspective, there is no right or wrong answer to the question of whether one should buy, hold or sell Alcidion. The answer is dependent on how one's risk tolerance, assessment of the risk-reward proposition, valuation of the company (including its prospects), conviction in the product and/management etc.

For example, one can rightly assert that operating costs are growing at a much faster rate than revenue. The numbers speak for themselves. However, one can also rightly point out that Alcidion is deliberately ramping up costs to scale up and capture market share, particularly in the UK. For sure, Alcidion can achieve profitability much earlier than FY23 if it were to cut down costs and not scale up but then it will be a much smaller business than what it could be because the value of a business is ultimately dependent on future cashflow. Amazon is a classic example, albeit it is an extreme example.

As a shareholder, I personally want Alcidion to at least have a real go at it rather than us wondering what it could have been in 5 to 10 years time. For sure, success is not a guarantee but I really want them to at least have a real go and growing the business to take advantage of the structural tailwinds. We can either back the management to try and grow the company or we might as well be invested in larger cap ASX companies.

The Alcidion board and management have both been very clear about their strategy, objectives etc. Most of which should not have come as a surprise to any observer who has been closely following the company. To focus on one aspect and not give consideration to the fuller context can be misleading.

The bullish case is that my original investment thesis in Alcidion has been slowly expanding over the past few years. Alcidion is not moving beyond the hospital setting to outside (e.g. Australian Defence Force and Integrated Care System). In other words, the addressable market and opportunities are growing.

The bearish case is that there is also a high level of execution risk. More companies have failed than succeed in their overseas venture. We also know that there is a large willing seller in the market. The risk is that if there is a lack of liquidity events, the dribs and drabs will continue for some time. We also know that some of Alcidion's largest shareholders will start to sell down their position at some time to enjoy their retirement.

Again, the known knowns and known unknowns have been well discussed here over the past few years so I will be very surprised if these come as a surprise/shock to anyone.

Expand

Thanks for this latest summary composer.

As I have said before, healthcare is global and one day my hope is that there will be one global system for it that provides data to one global database with A.I. giving structure to the data for all to use. Already researchers can access our data with the benefit of a large statistical sample from which to publish accurate findings. There would be multiple benefits* to personkind, e.g. if G.P. doctor's surgeries were reporting via the internet, there would be rapid recognition of pandemics.

Alcidion's Miya platform is essentially that system in embryo form.

Therefore (if it is not already being done) I would like all development of Miya to be done to include the potential to be that global system in readiness to one day offer it to the world.

*I am offering an hearty handclasp to the person who lists the most benefits

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(20min delay)
Last 6.9¢		Change 0.013(23.2%)		Mkt cap ! $92.63M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
5.5¢	7.1¢	5.5¢	$570.3K	8.840M


Last 6.5¢		Change 0.013 ( 16.1 %)
Open	High	Low	Volume
5.5¢	7.1¢	5.5¢	2505773
Last updated 15.54pm 03/05/2024 ?

Thanks for this latest summary composer.As I have said before,...

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