ALC

2.00%

4.9¢ alcidion group limited

Would love to see some contract announcements this quarter which...

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chaddy36

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02/09/22

16:25

Post #: 63490456
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Originally posted by composer: ↑

Definitely not an easy time to be a Alcidion shareholder given the fall in share price (albeit it has gone up quite a bit recently).

Also different ways to invest/play the sharemarket - buy and hold vs short-term trading. No right or wrong, just depends on your style and understanding you circle of competence.

From my perspective, the FY22 results (based on the 4Cs) lends a lot of credibility to what Kate's promise of profitability in FY23 (just need to understand what did she exactly mean by profitability - e.g. NPAT, EBIT or EBITDA?).

The number of unannounced contract wins mean that Alcidion has increased its penetration into the respective health systems. Next step is whether any further cross selling of the higher valued products would eventuate. I like to think it is likely but not sure about the time lag in which it would occur.

How I look at the current healthcare funding situation, Alcidion is positioned in a sweet spot. Increased funding means more flexibility in the procurement process and more timely decision making. Funding squeeze means the healthcare system would be forced to seek more efficiencies. Irrespective of where the wind blows, capex in new hospitals are pretty much a last resort due to the significant costs involved.

Not sure about whether the recent hiring spree has slowed or stopped but it would be interesting to observe from hereon when the inflection point is hit where growth in revenues outpaced costs, and also how much of it actually flow through the bottom line (underlying profit and cash position).

What is also clear is that Alcidion is investing in growth to capitalise on the underlying tailwinds. Not everything have to be aligned for the the market cap to be higher than what it is currently but there are some things that investors have to be aware of which Alcidion has little control, such as:

- decision making and the time involved in procurement process
- sell downs by former employees/directors (some of whom own a shitload of shares). This is one of my biggest worry with Alcidion. But to be fair, they are entitled to cash in at this stage of their lives
- changes in strategic priorities by governments

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Would love to see some contract announcements this quarter which means it would be greater than $3 million otherwise we wait again for the quarterly updates.There are definitely tailwinds particularly in UK with funding available to improve technology.Hopefully they can convert opportunity into reality.Waiting for that one decent contract for everyone to take note and be a game changer.The biggest positive is that we are cash flow positive.A good weekend to all.

ALC Price at posting: 14.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last 4.9¢		Change -0.001(2.00%)		Mkt cap ! $65.78M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
5.0¢	5.0¢	4.9¢	$29.07K	582.1K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	405306	4.9¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
5.5¢	256925	4

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	183849	0.049
1	200000	0.048
3	197297	0.047
2	600000	0.046
12	885814	0.045

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.055	256925	4
0.056	53500	1
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0.059	169500	1
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Would love to see some contract announcements this quarter which...

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Would love to see some contract announcements this quarter which...

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